On Oct 24, 2023 the California DMV announced they had suspended Cruise’s driverless taxis in SF, citing safety concerns (see https://x.com/Cruise/status/1716877217995894934?s=20).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cruise relaunches its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A “relaunch” requires Cruise to resume driverless operations in San Francisco, and does not include mere tests and demonstrations.
The resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting.
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@MCMillennium not really, mainly Cruise suspending all supervised driving which I guess this didn't adjust for even though that was three days ago (11-14).
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gms-cruise-suspends-supervised-manual-car-trips-expands-probes-2023-11-15/
https://getcruise.com/news/blog/2023/important-updates-from-cruise/
Seems like basically 0 chance of relaunching driverless rides before EOY. Have to get back to supervised testing, get through the CA DMV, then potentially a CPUC re-hearing, back to paid supervised rides, then finally back to paid driverless rides. (Although maybe this market might not require paid rides, idk, which would let Cruise bypass the CPUC - but seems unlikely they'd skip the proper steps at this point)
https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/09/cpuc-consider-redoing-hearing-to-grant-cruises-24-7-robotaxi-permit/
@MCMillennium guess there was arbitrage here, this market has been a lot closer imo https://manifold.markets/SunilOcaram/will-gms-cruise-resume-driverless-t
@MCMillennium Guess here's the latest though I hadn't seen it
"Cruise Exec Omitted Pedestrian Dragging In Summary of Self-Driving Car Incident to California DMV, Email Shows"
https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjbx5/cruise-exec-omitted-pedestrian-dragging-in-summary-of-self-driving-car-incident-to-california-dmv-email-shows