The I.N.D.I.A. alliance was formed on 18th July 2023, as a big-tent political alliance to contest the next Indian general election against the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party government, led by Narendra Modi.

The alliance brings together parties from across the political spectrum, several of whom have been former rivals. In contrast to the BJP-led NDA, the alliance lacks a coherent ideological inclination. This has caused friction in the recent past. For instance, the son of the leader of the DMK made a remark calling for the eradication of Sanatana Dharma, which drew flak from several parties within the alliance. Seat sharing is also a significant issue. For instance, legislators from the AAP and the INC in the state of Punjab have shown resistance to contesting elections together. The appeal of alliance with the BJP is also a factor, and has contributed to splits in the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party in the recent past. These are some factors that could mitigate a split within the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next general election. As such, India has had a history of poor coalition unity, as regional parties routinely switch loyalties, often for perceived political gains.

The next general election is expected to take place between April and May of 2024.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve as Yes, if before the first vote cast for the next Indian general election, at least 75% of contesting Lok Sabha candidates from any one of the Indian National Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the All India Trinamool Congress, the Janata Dal (United), the Samajwadi Party or the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (who are members of these parties as of 01/10/2023), do not contest under the I.N.D.I.A. alliance. If the I.N.D.I.A. factionalizes into 2 or more constituents, with the largest constituent not having at least 25% of contesting Lok Sabha candidates from each of the above parties, this question will also resolve as Yes.

Fine Print

The question will also resolve as Yes, if the I.N.D.I.A. alliance ceases to exist before the first vote cast for the next Indian general election. (A name change would not qualify as "ceasing to exist") "Largest" faction is defined as the faction with the highest number of current Lok Sabha MPs considering themselves to be members of that faction.