Military intervention in Niger by October 31?
13
82
250
resolved Nov 2
Resolved
NO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between September 18, 2023 and October 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger. For the purposes of this market, "offensive military operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc.

Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention.

A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.

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"Offensive" is what pushes this into a deep No. Most interventionist states claim their operations are defensive or protective in official statements almost no matter how aggressive they are.