Will I get 80% or above in my Complex Analysis Final Exam (on June 8th)?
15
212
270
resolved Jul 3
Resolved
NO

This is a primarily motivational market and my betting does not reflect my own beliefs about how well I'll do. Please refer to notes below for caution as to why betting no may be wise, e.g. the fact I am not particularly math inclined and that I have previously failed 5 math subjects at university overall.

Resolves 5th of July when I get my marks back, exam itself is on 8th of June. Will comment daily updates about my study progress and then also about how the exam goes. This is an accountability project to keep myself honest about how much study I am doing and how effective it is, as well as an experiment to see if I can make personal change in my life whilst also getting the handle of Manifold.

I'll keep this updated with my study progress and feel free to comment any questions you think are relevant.

Otherwise, some notes to make your bets:

  • I am not a particularly math-inclined person, I added a math degree as a double degree because I got into EA/8000 hours content and decided it would be a good way to learn programming/math/statistics for my career going forward

  • I have failed 5 university math subjects in the past but have recently gotten my act together study-wise and gained a deeper appreciation for math

  • In regards to how much study time I have, I'm working full-time and play for a semi-pro sports team so Monday-Friday 9am-5pm is barred from study and four of those evenings are taken up by practice sessions/games

  • In this subject I got 60% on a class test with no materials permitted weighted 20% of the mark, 67.5% on another class test weighted 20% and got 10% for class participation, which was basically just a quick check of whether I had made an attempt at the challenge problems and tutorial questions this semester. Overall I'm sitting on a 35.5/50 and 40 marks is the exact minimum score I want for the grade I'm aiming at.

  • The exam is take-home with no restrictions on content you can use. However, I'm not going to cheat in any form.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

Only got 34.5/50 in the end :( thanks for trading everyone!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Just sat the test and I think Ive lost 5-10 marks at the absolute most, feeling pretty confident. Take my estimate with a grain of salt as I very rarely do well in math exams but I had time to check and basically everything was solid except my last 10 marker, which had an "i" in the answer when I think it should have evaluated to a real answer for a real integral

predicted YES

3 days til exam: didn't do any study for this one today but still feeling pretty good about it

bought Ṁ360 of YES

4 days til exam: tracking well. Need a few medium sized nights of study over the next couple days spread out but I'm feeling pretty confident with the free marks at the start of the exam now. Green means got it first try, orange means took an attempt or two.

bought Ṁ75 of YES

5 days til exam: crunch time. Did about 3.5-4 hr of study today, working on my notes and a past exam. Turns out the past exam I sat didn't have any solutions which was a bit of an inconvenience, don't think I'll be able to properly mark until Monday (if at all because the professor running this class is weird about handing out solutions). Nevertheless, I didn't do too great on this; my 95% confidence interval for my mark in this would be 35%-65%. Struggled under time pressure and not having notes for more basic questions that I assumed would be easy. Relatively fixable errors and this was a way harder test than I am predicting our one to be tho.

predicted YES

6 days til exam: terrible day for study and horribly organised. Only managed 22 min of study. Did a low volume of Anki reviews and studied a single question on Laurentz series because I'm not particularly confident in them.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

7 days til exam: no study, just Anki reviews today. Need more conceptual ones to understand what's going on. Also would be good to practice barebones basics to get the fundamentals down right and prevent silly errors

bought Ṁ10 of YES

8 days until exam: another day of little study. Finished my Anki reviews for the first time in a few days with a couple procedural/conceptual atoms that were useful to recall.

Tomorrow I plan to start making my step-by-step solution notes for my exams.

I learnt from my differential equations preparation today that it saves lots of working memory to have subgoals of each solution step labelled (also beneficial for learning if you have to work out what each solution step is doing/keeping implicit)

bought Ṁ20 of YES

9 days til exam: another day off as I'm busy with work and study for my Differential Equations exam. Still have 9 days to go so will look to do my first test run in 2-3 days time. Have learnt from my mistakes in the other subjects exam prep about having material ready, second monitor and doing it all in one sitting

predicted YES

10 days til exam: no study at all for this subject today 😭 busy day and was caught up with my Differential Equations study which is higher priority to get some momentum for

bought Ṁ3 of YES

11 days til exam: very unproductive. Only thing that I would count as study was my daily Anki flashcards. Finished these in 6 minutes and some of those crossed over into my Differential Equations cards (market linked below).

Upon reviewing, noticed that I really need a better explanation of what happens in Laurentz series questions in there and some more on the intuiton behind imaginary exponentiation (not as high priority but would be nice)


Study by topic: Did not start. Green will be whether I get a single question correct for the topic, in which case I study it in two days. Red will mean I got it wrong and need to study again the next day.