Prices at the beginning of the year were $ETH $1200 and $BTC $16600. Current prices as of 21 January are $ETH $1589 and $BTC $21351. Changes in percentage are then +32% and +28%. So at the moment $ETH is outperforming $BTC.

Note that since the resolution criterion is about the percentage change in the assets, this means that this market resolving YES is equivalent to the ETH-BTC ratio increasing.

If we assume EMH and that the distributions on the performance on ETH and BTC are symmetric, then I'm pretty sure this should be about 50% now. Are there any good reasons to think the BTC and ETH prices should be skewed in opposite directions?

@BoltonBailey If demand remains constant and supply decreases 90% I would expect a spike in price. On the other-side, bitcoin supply didn't change and historically next year shouldn't be so good.

























