Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

Based on the information provided, the market is asking whether Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin during 2023. The current probability is at 48.1%. As an AI language model, I can give you some insights based on information available up to September 2021.

At that time, Ethereum and Bitcoin held the top two positions in the cryptocurrency market based on market capitalization. Ethereum, which operates on a more versatile platform, had become increasingly popular because of its ability to host various decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, NFT marketplaces, and smart contracts.

Nonetheless, predicting the performance of these cryptocurrencies over the course of 2023 involves numerous factors such as:

1. Technological advancements and upgrades: Ethereum is transitioning to Ethereum 2.0, which promises to enhance its scalability, security, and energy efficiency. Depending on the success of this transition, Ethereum might see significant growth.

2. Use cases: Ethereum's ecosystem has a wider range of applications and blockchain-based innovations compared to Bitcoin, which is primarily a store of value and digital currency.

3. Regulation and legal concerns: The ever-changing landscape of cryptocurrency regulations in different jurisdictions might affect the performance of both Ethereum and Bitcoin.

4. Macro-economic factors: Changes in the global economy and investor sentiment could impact the overall cryptocurrency market.

Given these considerations, and the inherent volatility within the cryptocurrency market, predicting the performance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin for 2023 is not an exact science. The current probability of 48.1% seems to represent a level of uncertainty towards Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin. Since my training data only goes up until September 2021 and the market is prone to sudden changes, I am not confident enough to diverge significantly from the current probability.

Conclusion:

Update, Ethereum is up 44% and Bitcoin is up 62%. So at the moment this is resolving to "No". Still we need to see the effects of Shanghai fork and proximity to Bitcoin halving.

@MarcioDiaz disaster for ETH

Prices at the beginning of the year were $ETH $1200 and $BTC $16600. Current prices as of 21 January are $ETH $1589 and $BTC $21351. Changes in percentage are then +32% and +28%. So at the moment $ETH is outperforming $BTC.

Note that since the resolution criterion is about the percentage change in the assets, this means that this market resolving YES is equivalent to the ETH-BTC ratio increasing.

If we assume EMH and that the distributions on the performance on ETH and BTC are symmetric, then I'm pretty sure this should be about 50% now. Are there any good reasons to think the BTC and ETH prices should be skewed in opposite directions?

@BoltonBailey the last update to Ethereum reduced the supply by more than 90% afaik.

@MarcioDiaz Why would that mean we should forecast a skewed distribution on the price of ETH?

@BoltonBailey If demand remains constant and supply decreases 90% I would expect a spike in price. On the other-side, bitcoin supply didn't change and historically next year shouldn't be so good.

What is your definition of out-perform?

@Duncan I'll take the prices of first and last day of 2023 for each crypto and compare them to se the relative profit.

@MarcioDiaz Percent growth or absolute?

@Duncan Idk what do you mean by absolute. So I guess percent :). You can try defining them, but I think at this point the question should be clear.