Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during 2023?
51%
chance

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MarcioDiaz avatar
Marcio Díaz
is predicting YES at 61%

Prices at the beginning of the year were $ETH $1200 and $BTC $16600. Current prices as of 21 January are $ETH $1589 and $BTC $21351. Changes in percentage are then +32% and +28%. So at the moment $ETH is outperforming $BTC.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting NO at 63%

Note that since the resolution criterion is about the percentage change in the assets, this means that this market resolving YES is equivalent to the ETH-BTC ratio increasing.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting NO at 60%

If we assume EMH and that the distributions on the performance on ETH and BTC are symmetric, then I'm pretty sure this should be about 50% now. Are there any good reasons to think the BTC and ETH prices should be skewed in opposite directions?

MarcioDiaz avatar
Marcio Díaz
is predicting YES at 54%

@BoltonBailey the last update to Ethereum reduced the supply by more than 90% afaik.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
is predicting NO at 63%

@MarcioDiaz Why would that mean we should forecast a skewed distribution on the price of ETH?

MarcioDiaz avatar
Marcio Díaz
is predicting YES at 63%

@BoltonBailey If demand remains constant and supply decreases 90% I would expect a spike in price. On the other-side, bitcoin supply didn't change and historically next year shouldn't be so good.

Duncan avatar

What is your definition of out-perform?

MarcioDiaz avatar
Marcio Díaz
is predicting YES at 54%

@Duncan I'll take the prices of first and last day of 2023 for each crypto and compare them to se the relative profit.

Duncan avatar

@MarcioDiaz Percent growth or absolute?

MarcioDiaz avatar
Marcio Díaz
is predicting YES at 54%

@Duncan Idk what do you mean by absolute. So I guess percent :). You can try defining them, but I think at this point the question should be clear.