Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Cryptocurrency Crypto Prices

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin during 2023?

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is predicting YES at 61%

Prices at the beginning of the year were $ETH $1200 and $BTC $16600. Current prices as of 21 January are $ETH $1589 and $BTC $21351. Changes in percentage are then +32% and +28%. So at the moment $ETH is outperforming $BTC.

is predicting NO at 63%

Note that since the resolution criterion is about the percentage change in the assets, this means that this market resolving YES is equivalent to the ETH-BTC ratio increasing.

is predicting NO at 60%

If we assume EMH and that the distributions on the performance on ETH and BTC are symmetric, then I'm pretty sure this should be about 50% now. Are there any good reasons to think the BTC and ETH prices should be skewed in opposite directions?

is predicting YES at 54%

@BoltonBailey the last update to Ethereum reduced the supply by more than 90% afaik.

is predicting NO at 63%

@MarcioDiaz Why would that mean we should forecast a skewed distribution on the price of ETH?

is predicting YES at 63%

@BoltonBailey If demand remains constant and supply decreases 90% I would expect a spike in price. On the other-side, bitcoin supply didn't change and historically next year shouldn't be so good.

What is your definition of out-perform?

is predicting YES at 54%

@Duncan I'll take the prices of first and last day of 2023 for each crypto and compare them to se the relative profit.

@MarcioDiaz Percent growth or absolute?

is predicting YES at 54%

@Duncan Idk what do you mean by absolute. So I guess percent :). You can try defining them, but I think at this point the question should be clear.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 53% to 51%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 50% to 53%

bought Ṁ35 NO from 55% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 57% to 55%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 57% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ45 NO from 63% to 55%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 61% to 63%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 61% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ69 NO from 51% to 64%

sold Ṁ25 NO from 47% to 51%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 45% to 47%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 45%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 56% to 45%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 56% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 60% to 55%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 59%

filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 YES at 60%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 52%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 57% to 55%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 57% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 56% to 58%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 56%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 54%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 52% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ20 YES from 54% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 54%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 52%

sold Ṁ6 NO from 48% to 50%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 48% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 NO from 53% to 45%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 56% to 53%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 50% to 56%

sold Ṁ15 NO from 45% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 48% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 53% to 45%

Nicholas Charette

bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 53%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 65% to 59%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 56% to 65%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 62% to 56%

sold Ṁ1 YES from 63% to 62%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 63%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 59%

created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 65% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 54%

filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ1 NO at 60% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 60%

Joseph Alcantara

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 57% (cancelled)