Which party will outperform their final polling for the popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
8
Ṁ240Ṁ1.4kresolved Nov 15
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.0%
Republican
0.3%
Democrat
0.6%
Neither (within 0.5% of projected or negative)
0.1%Other
Using aggregate and reputable references, such as 538 or RCP. Didn't intend for there to be a 4th option for 'Other' as it was included by default. So for this prediction, let's treat 'Other' as the outlier scenario where both Democrats and Republicans outperform by >0.5%, and independent candidates underperform.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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