This market resolves YES if Vermont Proposal 4 (Proposal 4: Article 23 of Chapter I [Equality of rights]) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Majority of votes cast on the proposal (Vt. Const. ch. II, sec. 72)

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Adds Ch. I Art. 23 guaranteeing equal protection; allows measures meant to provide equality for historically disadvantaged groups.

• NO: Vermont Constitution unchanged.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Vermont Secretary of State / state canvassing committee. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://governor.vermont.gov/sites/scott/files/documents/Proclamation%204%20Civil%20Rights.pdf