This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
1,000
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Chicago seems on the verge of massive gang battles - established gangs vs Venezuelan illegals. this and battles in Colorado. Major unrest could impact how people vote. Could shift black vote and other residents as violence escalates.
https://nypost.com/2024/09/22/us-news/chicago-gangbangers-face-off-against-venezuelans/
@DmitryOkunev given fees alone there is very very very little profit to be found arbitraging between manifold & polymarket on this market atm
If Teamsters polling of their 1.3 million members is correct then trump has 59-60% support vs Harris while he was at sub-40% versus Biden with Teamsters. teamsters endorsed Biden in 2020 and Hillary in 2016.. now no endorsement of either but members massively favoring Trump. That would be a monster shift in white working class votes. And a lot in the rust belt. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is 780k Union. If other unions mirror the teamster support then that would be 160k-230k vote swing in Pennsylvania.
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@brianwang head of teamsters spoke in GOP Convention. U think they r bipartisan in their βpollingβ ?
@brianwang Where are you getting that Trump has "59 to 60%" support vs Harris with Teamsters? They didn't endorse either candidate but the head spoke at the GOP convention. Meanwhile more than 20 Teamsters state level groups including Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin have endorsed Harris.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/local-teamsters-groups-announce-harris-endorsements-national-union-dec-rcna171984
https://triblive.com/news/politics-election/western-pa-teamsters-endorse-kamala-harris-breaking-with-national-union/
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/20/union-iowa-teamsters-endorsement-kamala-harris/75290647007/
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/21/teamsters-local-endorsement-harris
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/in-another-first-teamsters-make-no-endorsement-for-president
https://x.com/teamsters/status/1836463348269092918?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA
For the first time in its history, the Teamsters union has announced it will make no endorsement for president this election year.
The decision comes after the unionβs executive board reviewed several months of membership polling on which candidate to endorse. The results of this poll along with several others were published by the union on X.
From April 9 to July 3, nearly 300 Teamsters locals nationwide conducted first-of-their-kind presidential town halls to solicit endorsement preferences from members via straw polls. The in-person voting was held prior to President Joe Bidenβs withdrawal from the race. The Teamstersβ polling data shows members backed Biden 44.3% to Donald Trump 36.3%.
Following the Republican National Convention and Bidenβs exit, the Teamsters commissioned a national electronic poll of its 1.3 million members, overseen by an independent third party. During a voting window from July 24 to Sept. 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6% for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34% for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
They followed up with phone polls for one week to verify the electronic polling and it was 58% trump and 31% Harris.
Then after the no national endorsement. 260 of 358 locals based upon democrat ties or offers endorsed Harris. Only the local boss or leadership committee made the endorsement and against the preference of the membership. Although the 31-34% Harris likely concentrated in certain Dem leaning states and in Dem leaning professions.
The actual two very recent times the actual teamster membership were surveyed they have gone nearly 60% for Trump. There are about 95000 teamsters in Pennsylvania. A 25% swing from Dems in 4 months. Biden debate showed a Biden problems and then the switch and then the assassination attempts. The phone poll is long after the switch. This alone could be a 20000 vote swing in Pennsylvania. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by 81000 votes and trump won in 2016 by 44000 votes. I donβt think a teamster trump voter will switch to Harris because a local boss made an endorsement. There is comments supposedly from teamster angry that after the overwhelming vote result that the union did not follow their vote. Endorsement usually came with volunteer help.
A lot of teamsters in the key rust belt states. Again the 25% difference would matter. Especially if it indicates other union people feel the same.
@AlexGraettinger Shift in Pennsylvania in voter registration since 2020 -120k Democrat and +220k Republican. Percentages for registration by party in 2020 D +9, 2022 D +6, 2024 is D+4. shift away from D by 5.
@VNetChrome Head of the Teamsters wanted to speak at both RNC and DNC convention. RNC welcomed him openly. DNC banned the head of the teamsters as punishment for going to the RNC.
@brianwang and the source is the guy who led unprecedented donation to RNC? Or will there be a quote fr him saying DNC rejected teamsters donation too?