This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Michigan the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Michigan, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00@jacksonpolack sorry, thought i had seen other sweeps markets where michigan was already resolving yes. i do see the 48 hour thing in the description now.
There is a pretty big arb opportunity (12% atm): https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-7e7362326c95
I drove through Michigan (the long way) last week and I'm sorry to report that Trump is definitely winning the state. The signage advantage is massive, especially if you interpret the "pray for our country" signs as right-coded. Also, Kamala made the mistake of using a lot of yellow, the most hated color, on her billboards.
@AlexanderMiller Is it correct to assume that you are arbing with polymarket? Or do you genuinely think that Trump has equal odds to win the bluest swing state? Just asking out of curiosity.
@bagelfan thanks for making me notice that Kalshi is 8 points lower on Trump than Polymarket is here, wtf
