Will the Republicans control the US House after the 2024 election?
23
๐•Š343
Jan 20
41%
chance

This question resolves after the Associated Press projects which party will control the United States House following the 2024 US general election and all relevant runoff/special elections.

This question resolves YES if the Republican Party will be in control, or NO otherwise. This question will wait to resolve until 48 hours after the house majority has been called by the AP, to ensure that the call is not retracted.


  • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.

  • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, this question will wait for those to resolve.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

GOP has 192 "solid" seats to Dems 174. GOP has 206 solid+likely+lean seats to Dems 203.

Seems too low for us being far out from the election, especially with current poling numbers.