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Sweepcash version still not resolved :(

@ManifoldPolitics Can you resolve the Sweepcash version as well?

Well, Matt Gaetz apparently HAS now resigned before the start of congress. Not sure AP retracts the call because of this but 🤷‍♂️

Called by AP, let the 48 hour countdown commence. Thank you!

@Manifold @ManifoldPolitics

https://apnews.com/live/election-house-trump-updates-11-13-24#00000193-26ff-dc3e-a59b-6eff5cb30000

Alaska is almost certain to flip Republican.

As it stands, the election will head to a ranked-choice runoff. Even if Peltola receives all votes from 4th place and below, she would still be short of 50%. So, it must come down to redistributing the third-party votes for John W. Howe (AIP), who received 11k first-choice votes. Nick Begich would need less than 3k second-choice votes to win the runoff. This is likely to happen given the nationalist conservative position of the AIP.

There is rumbling on Twitter right now about Republicans losing too many seats in the short term due to Trump cabinet picks

@makeworld won’t matter for this market, they won’t leave congress until confirmed

@ManifoldPolitics I think this can resolve now?

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4974235-house-republicans-control-majority/amp/

The market has to wait until 48 hours after the Associated Press' call, as stated in its description. The Associated Press has not called the House yet.

@Calibrate Seems a little excessive. The AP calls thousands of races per year and I can only find a couple examples where they miscalled races in the last decade. Do you really want to make every wait 48 hours on the 1 in 10,000 chance the AP is wrong?

@GG in the cases where it's stated in the market description that we wait, it's policy here to wait. Market creators that don't want to wait that long can just state it resolves to AP call, in which case it can resolve early and reresolve in the rare cases where AP changes their call

@Bayesian I understand you gotta resolve the market the way you say you're gonna resolve it, but that just pushes the question back. Why does a question from an official Manifold account have a 48 hour delay? Resolving immediately on the AP call would tie the your winnings/losses to the breaking news, amplifying its dopamine rush. It's not nearly as fun to collect your winnings two days later. And in the 1 in 10,000 chance that you have to unresolve the market when the AP retracts their call...well now you've taken my dopamine on a roller coaster!

I was curious, so I looked at the 18 remaining uncalled House races. There are 13 currently uncalled races where Democrats have at least a slim chance of winning:

• CA-39 (Takano, currently D+12)

• CA-49 (Levin, currently D+3)

• OR-05 (Bynum, currently D+3)

• CA-09 (Harder, currently D+2)

• CA-27 (Whitesides, currently D+2)

• CA-21 (Costa, currently D+1)

• CA-47 (Min, currently D+<1)

• OH-09 (Kaptur, currently D+<1)

• ME-02 (Golden, proceeding to runoff v. Theriault)

• AZ-06 (Engel, currently Ciscomani R+<1)

• CA-45 (Tran, currently Steel R+2)

• CA-13 (Gray, currently Duarte R+3)

• CA-41 (Rollins, currently Calvert R+3)

To control the House, Democrats would need to win all 13 of the above, plus one additional race from this set (which I believe is exceedingly unlikely):

• CA-22 (Salas, currently Valadao R+7)

• CO-08 (Caraveo, currently Evans R+<1 with the vast majority of votes in)

• IA-01 (Bohannan, currently Miller-Meeks R+<1 with the vast majority of votes in)

• AK-01 (Peltola, proceeding to runoff v. Begich, will almost certainly lose)

Democrats have already lost these uncalled races:

• WA-04 (Republican vs. Republican)

@Calibrate

It's worth comparing this to the individual seat markets on the US Election tab:

ME-02 is almost guaranteed D

OR-05 and OH-09 are safe D

Most of the unfinished CA seats are likely D, except for:

CA-41, CA-45, CA-13 (all at ~30% D), and CA-22 (5% D)

AZ-06 is likely R (85%)

CO-08, IA-01 are safe R (95%)

AK-01 is likely R (10%)

I'm inclined to agree with all of these assessments.

The CA seats are all correlated, and probably also weakly correlated with AZ-06.

I think a D victory is extremely unlikely but not literally inconceivable (1-2%).

@Anthem Huh, interesting. Better trade R on that AK-01 market, then! It's worth noting that in 2022, a majority of voters preferred Begich to Peltola (52.6% to 47.4%), but Peltola won as Sarah Palin eliminated Begich from the race before the final runoff.

Anyone hoping for a quick resolution may be disappointed: with the appointment of Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) to Trump's cabinet, there's a small possibility that this question remains unresolved until after a special election is held to replace Stefanik, which could take months.

@Calibrate I'm not sure if this is true? She would only leave congress after she is confirmed by the senate for the position, no?

@benshindel I think you may be right! Sorry about that.

@Robincvgr miscalibrated.

@Riley12 Do tell

Imagine waiting three days to find out who won the Super Bowl.

@GG Imagine if the Super Bowl was decided by votes. (This comment is all in good fun.)