This market resolves YES if Michigan Proposal 2 (A proposed initiated law to prohibit campaign contributions from certain regulated utilities and government contractors and apply campaign finance laws and regulations to additional types of political communications) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Majority of votes cast on the question (Mich. Const. art. II, sec. 9); once adopted, the Legislature can amend it only by a 3/4 vote of each house

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Adopts the initiated law: contribution ban for covered utilities, contractors and connected persons; broader disclosure for political communications, including internet communications.

• NO: Current campaign finance law stays the same.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Michigan Board of State Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 75% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: Glengariff for Detroit News/WDIV, Aug 31-Sep 3 2026, 600 LV, ±4: 71.5% yes / 15.6% no / 12.8% undecided. https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/09/09/poll-do-michigan-voters-support-stricter-political-campaign-finance-rules/.

Official source: https://www.michigan.gov/sos/-/media/Project/Websites/sos/BSC-Announcements/2026/MMOP-Staff-Report.pdf