This question resolves based on the head-to-head margin in the upcoming NYT/Siena poll of the entire United States.

It resolves YES if the upcoming NYT/Siena poll shows Harris leading in the head-to-head margin, or resolves NO if Trump is leading.

This question resolves 50% if the NYT shows the head-to-head margin as exactly tied. This includes if one candidate was ahead by a fraction of a percent, but the NYT rounds to the nearest percent. However, if the headline describes them as "neck-and-neck" but Harris is 1% ahead, this question will still resolve to YES.

If no NYT/Siena poll of likely voters across the US is released before October 1st, 2024 then this question will resolve to 50%.

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