Assuming p(loses electoral college | wins popular vote) = 0 then there is an arbitrage with these two markets:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election

https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/if-trump-is-elected-president-in-20-76bc6d834051

definitely not a safe assumption

@jade I dunno seems pretty safe to me, both polymarket and 538 have it at ~1%. You could bet YES on /RichardHanania/will-republicans-win-the-popular-vo-llm5g905qm--cash if you feel there is a chance for that.

@Gen any interested yessers?

Seems plausible.

@Joshua that's wrong for many reasons

I don't think I've seen any model that gives more than a 25% chance of a Harris pop vote win but Trump EC win. Either this market should be higher or Harris Presidency should be waaaaaay higher, or every model is wrong.

538 and Silver Bulletin don't agree on much but they agree on this.

@Joshua your house vote% is very wrong if you are trying to get the popular vote

Well obviously trump is much less popular than "generic republican" and this isn't a midterm so 2022 isn't as important as 2020 and 2016. But I think not enough people trust the models here.

@Joshua Had I known people followed the models that closely, I would have put the limit higher! another 25k at 30% if you are that interested

@Gen Nah i just wanted as many shares as semiotic

@Joshua this market is independent of EC result.

This is essentially a 3 month note with 22% interest

@datachef Why not put more than 1.3% of your portfolio into it then?

@BoltonBailey reallocating as we speak. Also thinking about whether I am going to look foolish or not. Better to do that earlier than later.

Never in my lifetime of the life have I seen such a candidate motivate the people like this to vote against them in elections. Really the biggest, best and most.

for a more granular market with more comparison points

Upgrading this market to premium, 100,000 mana up for grabs!

Yes

YES = cheap

@biased

@biased what forecast is that referencing?

@datachef Seems like Nate Silver, judging by the font.

@BoltonBailey Yep. Nate Silver / Silver Bulletin