Will Donald Trump make his half-billion dollar bond or have it waived by the March 25th deadline?
208
5.2kṀ36k
resolved Mar 25
100%95%
The bond is waived/significantly reduced/postponed
2%
Trump makes the Bond before the deadline
2%
Trump fails to make bond before the deadline
0.7%Other

Context from the NY Times:

The bond is due March 25, and without one, some of Donald Trump’s marquee properties would be at risk of seizure by the state.

This market resolves to the first option of Trump makes bond, the second if the bond is waived/significantly reduced/postponed, and the third if the deadline stands and he fails to post bond. The "other" option exists to cover any unknown scenarios outside those, and should resolve "no" in most circumstances.

Additional context:

By Monday, March 25, the former president must secure an appeal bond for roughly half a billion dollars in his civil fraud case in New York, and his ability to do so was called into question this week.

In a court filing, Mr. Trump’s lawyers revealed that he had been unable to secure an appeal bond despite “diligent efforts” that included approaching about 30 bond companies.

What is an appeal bond?

In this case, it would be a document in which a bond company promises to pay the $454 million judgment, plus interest, if Mr. Trump were to lose his appeal and fails to pay.

To obtain a bond of such size, Mr. Trump would need to pledge a significant amount of collateral to the bond company — about $557 million, his lawyers said — including as much cash as possible, as well as any stocks and bonds he could sell quickly.

He would also owe the bond company a fee that could amount to nearly $20 million.

What is the deadline for the bond?

Mr. Trump asked an appeals court either to pause the fraud judgment while he appeals it, or to accept a lesser bond of $100 million. The court could rule this week.

Although Ms. James could have moved to collect the $454 million immediately, she offered a 30-day grace period, which ends on March 25.

Ms. James could still grant additional time for Mr. Trump to pay or show mercy to the former president by offering a counterproposal.

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