Context from the NY Times:
The bond is due March 25, and without one, some of Donald Trump’s marquee properties would be at risk of seizure by the state.
This market resolves to the first option of Trump makes bond, the second if the bond is waived/significantly reduced/postponed, and the third if the deadline stands and he fails to post bond. The "other" option exists to cover any unknown scenarios outside those, and should resolve "no" in most circumstances.
Additional context:
By Monday, March 25, the former president must secure an appeal bond for roughly half a billion dollars in his civil fraud case in New York, and his ability to do so was called into question this week.
In a court filing, Mr. Trump’s lawyers revealed that he had been unable to secure an appeal bond despite “diligent efforts” that included approaching about 30 bond companies.
What is an appeal bond?
In this case, it would be a document in which a bond company promises to pay the $454 million judgment, plus interest, if Mr. Trump were to lose his appeal and fails to pay.
To obtain a bond of such size, Mr. Trump would need to pledge a significant amount of collateral to the bond company — about $557 million, his lawyers said — including as much cash as possible, as well as any stocks and bonds he could sell quickly.
He would also owe the bond company a fee that could amount to nearly $20 million.
What is the deadline for the bond?
Mr. Trump asked an appeals court either to pause the fraud judgment while he appeals it, or to accept a lesser bond of $100 million. The court could rule this week.
Although Ms. James could have moved to collect the $454 million immediately, she offered a 30-day grace period, which ends on March 25.
Ms. James could still grant additional time for Mr. Trump to pay or show mercy to the former president by offering a counterproposal.
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This was a fun market, any plans to make a similar one for the next due date in 10 days @ManifoldPolitics? I'd make it myself, but don't want to step on your toes here
@Gen I'll sell you all my 1100 meets bond NO shares if you create a limit order at 60%
@parhizj He doesn't need to sell the shares, just needs to be able to present them as collateral. $3B shares can easily collateralize a loan for $600m, bc the lender can insure the value / hedge risk by trading DJT derivatives
@mint I put a limit up, I'll pull it off in a bit tho
https://eddsa.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/public/2024_01134_PEOPLE_OF_THE_STATE_OF_v_PEOPLE_OF_THE_STATE_OF_ORDER_21.pdf
@Gen If those shares are indeed good for collateral (and end up used so) then this is such a sweetheart deal to reduce the amount while giving him more time.
@parhizj It was still an exceptional bond amount, I’m not surprised it was reduced. this is why I primarily bet NO on failure to pay, rather than YES on paying in full
If anyone wants to bet on if he’ll pay the $150m… absolutely he will
I mean, let's assume he can pay it. Of course, even then, you don't pay it until the absolute deadline, because who knows if you might get concessions by claiming to be unable to. As of today, Trump making the bond payment looks just like Trump failing to do so.
@mint Is there a specific circumstance that falls outside the three options you're thinking of? Or just betting on unknown unknowns?
@ManifoldPolitics basically unknown unknowns. I'm specifically remembering a previous market about judicial decisions and thinking how judicial decisions can surprise you and not fit into any bucket. Oh and the real kicker... the same person who made like 1000x returns on that market is invested into Other on this one too 🤔
@mint Fair point! Well if anyone thinks of something specific, leave a comment and I can actually add it as an option.