This market resolves YES if Colorado Amendment 86 (Congressional Redistricting) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

55% of votes cast on the measure (Colo. Const. art. V §1(4)(b)); SOS: 'Requires 55% approval because it adds language to the state constitution'; Blue Book: 'Passes with 55 percent of the vote'

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Commission (and Supreme Court) must approve any congressional map change outside a scheduled redistricting year (Blue Book).

• NO: Continues the current every-ten-years congressional redistricting requirements (Blue Book).

Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/requirements-for-off-cycle-congressional-redistricting-2/files/blue-book