This market resolves YES if Arkansas Issue 4 (Arkansas Water, Waste Disposal, and Pollution Abatement Facilities Financing Act of 2025.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of electors voting on the question (Ark. Const. Amend. 20, state GO bonds)

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: FOR Issuance of State of Arkansas Water, Waste Disposal, and Pollution Abatement Facilities general obligation bonds (up to $500M, full faith and credit).

• NO: AGAINST issuance of those bonds; the new bond authority is not granted.

Results: resolves on the result certified by County boards of election commissioners certify returns to the Secretary of State, who certifies statewide results. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 85% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll, Aug 11-12, 2026, 1,217 likely voters: 66% for / 10% against / 24% undecided (https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/); a similar $300M bond passed in 2008..

Official source: https://www.sos.arkansas.gov/uploads/elections/Issue_No._4_Act_578_of_2026_.pdf