A person's name will resolve YES if they publicly state that they will vote for, have voted for, or are encouraging other people to vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
It must be an endorsement for Trump, an anti-endorsement like "vote for anyone but Biden" would not count.
This must occur before market close at the end of election day on November 5th 2024. Statements on November 6th or later that someone voted for Trump will not count.
If these criteria are not met by market close, a name will resolve NO.
You can submit the name of anyone you think people would be interested in trading on, but please don't submit anyone who has already endorsed Trump.
1,000
3.00@ElectricSteam Forbes has him has endorsing Trump: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/11/05/harris-and-trumps-biggest-celebrity-endorsements-joe-rogan-endorses-trump-citing-elon-musk/
No idea who sportskeeda are, but they’re Forbes’ citation: https://www.sportskeeda.com/mma/news-mike-tyson-endorses-donald-trump-ahead-2024-us-elections-i-agree-sh-t
@JoshuaB Shit, it's kind of borderline... he says it "would be nice" if Trump wins but doesn't really say anything else.
Edit: amusingly, not only does he not say he's voting for Trump, he more or less says he's not - he admits he's never voted except for Obama one time.
@JoshuaB Great find!
I'm looking at the video, and I think I'd argue that this is not strong enough to qualify as an endorsement for the purpose of this market, even if the writers at sportskeeda label it as one. (Disclosure: I'm holding a bunch of No shares.)
Here's my reasoning: The description says it resolves Yes if they "state that they will vote for, have voted for, or are encouraging other people to vote for Donald Trump" in 2024:
"they will vote for, [or] have voted for": When he says, "yeah, it'd be nice if he wins" (39:58), it's such a reluctant statement (both in words and body language) that I don't think we can reasonably infer a commitment from him to actually go vote -- especially in the context of him later saying that he's never voted except for Obama one time (41:29). "It'd be nice if he wins" is something he could plausibly say if he's planning to vote, but equally if his plan is to just watch the election on TV without voting himself. The statement is too indirect for us to know either way.
"or are encouraging other people to vote": He doesn’t seem to be attempting to persuade anyone. When asked "why do you want Trump to win" (40:06), he refuses to say why. Later, at 42:00, he says, "this is what it is, right, he's president, I got love for him, I live not far from him, I'm always at his house, he's showing me love, his wife his kids they're all showing my family love, hey, the other people never going to show me that love, this other lady she's not going to show me no love". This makes it clear that his reasons for voting for Trump are personal (he's friends with Trump) more so than political. So he's clearly making no attempt here to convince the listener to vote for Trump.
For comparison, here's Peter Thiel's endorsement of Trump at the 2016 RNC (5:35): "When Donald Trump asks us to make America great again, he is not suggesting a return to the past. He is running to lead us back to the bright future. Tonight, I urge all of my fellow Americans to stand up and vote for Donald Trump." You can see that he's (1) attempting to persuade, and (2) calling people to action. Tyson is doing neither.
So far I've only found this video, where he says he'll vote for Trump. It was posted in 2024 by a fan account, but is actually just a clip from a 2015 interview (4:30 timestamp). So as of right now, I think it's a No.
The closest statement I could find from Peter Thiel is "[if] you hold a gun to my head I’ll vote for Trump". I think the conditional means that this statement doesn't fulfill the Yes condition "will vote for", since it indicates a weak preference for Trump, but leaves open the possibility that he doesn't vote in the 2024 election.
Is it an endorsement in the sense of encouraging other people to vote for Trump? That's a bit more ambiguous, but to me it doesn't sound like it meets that threshold, and ChatGPT also doesn't call this an endorsement:
User: If someone says, "if you hold a gun to my head, I'll vote for candidate X [over his opponent]", does that constitute an "endorsement" of candidate X in the technical sense?
ChatGPT: No, saying “if you hold a gun to my head, I’ll vote for candidate X” does not constitute a true endorsement in the technical sense. An endorsement usually implies a positive or willing support for a candidate, indicating that the endorser believes the candidate is the best choice, aligns with their values, or deserves to win.
In this case, the phrase suggests a lack of genuine support and implies that the speaker would only vote for candidate X under extreme pressure or as the least objectionable option. Technically, it would be more accurate to describe this as a reluctant or conditional choice rather than an endorsement.
@ManifoldPolitics https://x.com/joerogan/status/1853614670764015762 Joe Rogan endorses Trump
Paul Ryan says he’s not voting for Trump. Shouldn’t this resolve no? - https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1837488098206269866?s=46
@Rolledupaces That doesn’t preclude him from endorsing Trump before this market closes.
@ManifoldPolitics @Joshua I think this submission is violating the rules with more than one name (and it is super boring)
@JRR Doesn't matter, he can still change his mind, before election day and endorse Trump too, even if it's unlikely. Market close hasn't been reached yet. According to the description:
If these criteria are not met by market close, a name will resolve NO.
RFK is encouraging people to vote for trump in the competitive states, which is an endorsement. Jake Paul and Kanye apparently endorsed before this market was created and the rules don't cover that so I've N/Aed them.
I think going forward we should require endorsements to be from after market creation, from people who didn't already endorse this cycle. Seem fair?
Ignore this comment!