Who will be the next Republican Nominee who is not Donald Trump, in 2024 or beyond?
Basic
19
Ṁ514
Nov 12
53%Other
14%
JD Vance
10%
Ron Desantis
5%
Nikki Haley
3%
Glenn Youngkin
2%
Tucker Carlson
2%
Vivek Ramaswamy
1.7%
Donald Trump Jr.
1.6%
Tim Scott
1.6%
Greg Abbott
1.1%
Ted Cruz
1.1%
Kristi Noem
1.1%
Elise Stefanik
1.1%
Mike Pence
1.1%
Ben Carson

This market resolves to the next Republican Party Nominee who is not Donald trump, in whatever year that happens. This means that if Trump steps aside or dies before the 2024 election, this market resolves to whoever replaces him.

But if Trump is not replaced, then this market remains open until there is a nominee in a future election cycle who is not Donald Trump.

If you have any suggestions for other potential candidates to add, please leave a comment below.

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I’d consider betting on “No one.” It’s far from a non-zero possibility. There is no longer a Federalist or Whig party.

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