Rhode Island US Senate Race 2024: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Patricia Morgan
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Plus
10
Ṁ1183
Jan 1
97%
Sheldon Whitehouse (Democratic Party)
3%
Patricia Morgan (Republican Party)
0.3%
Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. Patricia Morgan (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 9 traders): 96%

  • Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Not enough polls

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+23 (Whitehouse vs. Flanders)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection:  D+30 (Whitehouse vs. Hinckley)

  • Recent Rhode Island presidential election results: Biden+21 (2020), Clinton+16 (2016), Obama+27 (2012)

Commentary:

Does it count as a fun fact that the senator’s last name is Whitehouse?

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