Hawaii US Senate Race 2024: Mazie Hirono vs. Bob McDermott
Basic
4
Ṁ360
Jan 1
98%
Mazie Hirono (Democratic Party)
1.1%
Bob McDermott (Republican Party)
1.1%
Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

Hawaii: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Bob McDermott (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 3 traders): 98%

  • Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): No Senate polls

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year:  D+42 (Hirono vs. Curtis)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+25 (Hirono vs. Lingle)

  • Recent Hawaii presidential election results: Biden+29 (2020), Clinton+32 (2016), Obama+43 (2012)

Commentary:

Ah, just like last time, we conclude with a race so boring that no one has even bothered to poll it!

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