Massachusetts US Senate Race: Elizabeth Warren vs. John Deaton
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Plus
13
Ṁ1639
resolved Nov 6
100%98%
Elizabeth Warren (Democratic Party)
2%
John Deaton (Republican Party)
0.1%Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

Massachusetts: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. John Deaton (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 11 traders): 97%

  • Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Warren+23

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+24 (Warren vs. Diehl)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+8 (Warren vs. Brown)

  • Recent Massachusetts presidential election results: Biden+33 (2020), Clinton+27 (2016), Obama+23 (2012)

Commentary:

Given Elizabeth Warren’s national prominence, it’s sort of interesting that she’s historically underperformed national Democrats in Massachusetts. It doesn’t impact the result since MA is such a blue state, but it’ll be interesting to see if that trend continues. Will Warren or Harris do better?

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