Which party will win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election (by subgroup)?
76
2.9kṀ18k
resolved Feb 6
Resolved
YES
Men: GOP
Resolved
YES
Age 45-64: GOP
Resolved
YES
Age 65+: GOP
Resolved
YES
White women: GOP
Resolved
YES
Non-college graduate: GOP
Resolved
YES
Non-LGBT: GOP
Resolved
NO
Women: GOP
Resolved
NO
Age 18-29: GOP
Resolved
NO
Age 30-44: GOP
Resolved
NO
Non-white men: GOP
Resolved
NO
College graduate: GOP

Each option resolves Yes if the GOP-nominated-candidate wins a plurality (1st place, not necessarily 50%+) of votes in this age group, No if the Dem-nominated-candidate wins a plurality, and the entire market resolves N/A if any group has a non-GOP, non-Dem plurality winner.

Will be resolved based on exit polling: here's an example from CNN in 2020.

2024 US Presidential Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ383
2Ṁ204
3Ṁ147
4Ṁ138
5Ṁ109

People are also trading

Sort by:

@mods Please

bought Ṁ50 YES

This can now resolve: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president

@ManifoldPolitics

The example link is broken and is a 404, can you please give some more info about how this is going to be calculated ?

What if there’s a tie in the exit polls? Or they disagree with each other?

So it's not possible to N/A for a single option?

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy