This question resolves to the day on which the New York Times unequivocally reports that an Israeli ground invasion into Rafah has begun.
Reports of air strikes, raids, covert operations, etc will not be sufficient for a resolution. In general, ambiguous situations in which the NYT does not use the word "invasion" will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
This market will resolve to the day on which the qualifying reporting is published, which may not be the same day that the reported events occurred.
If a ground invasion begins on Friday night but the Times does not report on it until Saturday morning, this market resolves to Saturday. Op-Eds and similar will not be sufficient for resolution.
Resolution will be based on Eastern Time (UTC -04:00). If there is no invasion reported before May 13th, this market resolves to "Not before Monday, May 13th".
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/09/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-rafah-biden.html
does this resolve yes? It says "invasion" specifically
@Qoiuoiuoiu https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/08/world/middleeast/israel-incursion-rafah-satellite-image-map.html
"New satellite imagery taken after Israeli forces pushed into Rafah shows widespread damage to the southern Gaza city — including large areas of flattened structures — and clusters of Israeli armored vehicles."
@Qoiuoiuoiu the first article says
"..comments made clear the widening rift between Israel and the United States over the war and the prospect of a full-scale invasion of Rafah..." meaning the invasion hasn't happened yet but there's a prospect/chance/it's imminent.
the second one is the same I think?
"..But Rafah has also become a refuge for more than a million Palestinians who have fled Israeli bombardment in other parts of Gaza, and there is broad concern that a full-scale invasion might prove catastrophic.."
The article has to use the literal term invasion as something that happened/is happening to resolve
@Qoiuoiuoiu Yeah, so far the Times hasn't said anything that would resolve this market. This will likely resolve to "Not before Monday, May 13th" if there's nothing new today.
I've made a new version for next week, and I'm going to be more specific and use the term "full-scale invasion" in the title/description as that seems to be the wording the Times is using to describe the line that has not yet been crossed.
@Greyhawk nothing resolves until everything resolves (meaning, until one of the options resolves Yes)
@shankypanky right fair enough, must be a different question type where options can be resolved one by one.
@Greyhawk yep, it just depends on how the question is set up - you can check to be sure by clicking the three dots up at the top and looking at Type. if it's "dependent" like this one, it has to resolve all at once. if you see "independent" it can resolve one by one.