What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
135
788
1.6k
Jun 2
1.1%
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal
93%
Israel invades Rafah
6%
June 1st arrives with neither having happened
0.1%
Other

Ceasefire definition per Metaculus:

  • Temporary ceasefires count, as do humanitarian pauses, so long as they extend to the entire conflict. For example, a humanitarian pause in certain regions or corridors would not be sufficient.

  • The ceasefire does not actually need to begin, so long as there are credible reports that a ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas.

Rafah invasion definition:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the New York Times or WSJ unequivocally report that Israel has initiated a ground invasion of Rafah.

Reports of air strikes, raids, covert operations, incursions, etc will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes." In general, ambiguous situations in which the NYT or WJ does not use the word "invasion" will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

The "Other" option exists to cover unknown unknowns, and should resolve NO in most circumstances.

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It's still being called an "operation" today: Maps Show Scarce Shelter and Medical Care as Rafah Operation Is Underway - The New York Times (nytimes.com).

But the latest satellite maps they have are from May 7th - once we have more recent data, we'll probably find that Israel has pushed even further into Rafah.

I’m not betting bc NYT and WJ are very bad standards. Many things happen that neither report on. And they often use synonyms, especially ones that favor the US security state.

We're getting very close now, see this NYT article:

Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s foreign minister, quickly pushed back, arguing that the crossing was still closed because Israel’s control over it, and its military operations in the surrounding area, were putting truck drivers and aid workers in danger.

In a statement from the Egyptian foreign ministry, Mr. Shoukry rejected what he described as “the policy of twisting facts.”

Defying international pressure, Israel launched a limited invasion of Rafah on May 6, taking over eastern parts of the area. Even if trucks were allowed to pass through the Rafah crossing, it was not clear if they could safely navigate through eastern Rafah, where Israeli forces have been fighting Hamas militants.

Palestinians workers evacuated the crossing before the arrival of Israeli forces, according to Wael Abu Omar, a spokesman for the Palestinian side of the crossing.

If this is a change in the NYT's editorial position and they start consistently and unequivocally describing the events that began on the 6th as an invasion, then that will be enough for this market to consider it an invasion. On the other hand, if this is one journalist taking a stance against his editor and the Times goes back to calling things "raids/incursions/offensives", then the situation is not yet unambiguous enough for resolution.

@ManifoldPolitics

Another NYT article describing Israel’s military presence as an invasion.

@BobSnodgrass that's referring to "concerns about an invasion" related to its plans to push deeper into Rafah

@shankypanky Exactly. The article is about Israel continuing with a ground invasion despite international concerns.

The Polymarket criteria I chose to use here are being a bit strained right now, as there is ambiguity in what is a "small raid or special operation" versus a full ground offensive, and at what point it becomes an "invasion".

For consistency with the other markets I've made on this subject, I am updating the description to clarify that this market will resolve based on the New York Times or Wall Street Journal reporting an "invasion" using that exact word.

bought Ṁ500 Israel invades Rafah YES

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/07/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah

Tanks rolling into rafah according to New York times

reposted

New market on when the invasion will happen, if it happens this month:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that's the one - you can click the embed in the comment to reach the market as well.

@shankypanky Yeah, it was missing the embed before.

bought Ṁ200 Israel invades Rafah YES

Seeing reports that tanks are already crossing into Rafah.

reposted

So, it seems pretty unclear right now whether the reports about a ceasefire are reliable. I'd caution against any headline trading.

I have created a market for the one-week ultimatum deadline reported by WSJ:

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