Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on June 15th?
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Resolution Source:

This market resolves on the ElectionBettingOdds average of each party's odds to win the US Presidential Election in 2024. This is currently an average of Polymarket, Betfair, PredictIt, and Smarkets.

This market will close the night before June 15th, and then will be resolved based on the data displayed the day after.

If the Republican Party odds are above the Democratic Party odds for the entirety of June 15th (In Pacific Time), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

Display errors, bugs, etc will be disregarded. However, updates to the average due to deliberate methodological changes and markets being added or removed from the average will still count for resolution.

If the entire page becomes indefinitely unavailable for some reason, the average for the resolution date will be manually calculated by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

1% for non-Republican non-Democrat president is way, way too high.

@CianMcIntyre No real way to bet against it though (fees + opportunity cost is way higher than 1%)

@ShakedKoplewitz fees are actually fine for low probabilities on no, they're effectively 7% of your potential winnings on top of what you spent not of total spent, the only problem is interest rates

@jacksonpolack I think the previous poster means they're too high for the extremely high probability of betting in favour of a Dem/Rep president. I'm not aware of how the fees on these markets work, but I suppose that might make sense if you'd need to put up huge money to overcome the fees for going long on a 99+% market.

@CianMcIntyre If you bet YES on 99%, the fees are more like 7% of 1% so like .07% so fees still aren't a problem there

@CianMcIntyre Not to mention the 10% odds of Biden resigning. The probabilities on there are something else.

reposted

It's looking bad for the dems!

Here's a version of this market for early July, for those that want to predict if the trend will continue longer:

@ManifoldPolitics Is there a good reason why it spiked in the last couple of days? I wasn't aware of any major news.

@ManifoldPolitics No commentary from you, I need it to be neutral from main account creator!

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This is a prize market!

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