@Joshua @ManifoldPolitics Resolves Yes.

Gotta wait for the whole day

Ah, missed that, thanks!

1% for non-Republican non-Democrat president is way, way too high.

@CianMcIntyre No real way to bet against it though (fees + opportunity cost is way higher than 1%)

@ShakedKoplewitz fees are actually fine for low probabilities on no, they're effectively 7% of your potential winnings on top of what you spent not of total spent, the only problem is interest rates

@jacksonpolack I think the previous poster means they're too high for the extremely high probability of betting in favour of a Dem/Rep president. I'm not aware of how the fees on these markets work, but I suppose that might make sense if you'd need to put up huge money to overcome the fees for going long on a 99+% market.

@CianMcIntyre If you bet YES on 99%, the fees are more like 7% of 1% so like .07% so fees still aren't a problem there

@CianMcIntyre Not to mention the 10% odds of Biden resigning. The probabilities on there are something else.

It's looking bad for the dems!

Here's a version of this market for early July, for those that want to predict if the trend will continue longer:

@ManifoldPolitics Is there a good reason why it spiked in the last couple of days? I wasn't aware of any major news.

@ManifoldPolitics No commentary from you, I need it to be neutral from main account creator!

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I don't know why it spiked, but the Manifold market hasn't done the same https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

Looking at https://electionbettingodds.com/ it seems like Predictit doesn't have this effect Polymarket, Betfair, and Smarkets do.

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

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This is a prize market!