The 538 Election Model will give Trump what % chance of winning the election? [Medium Precision]
The 538 Election Model will give Trump what % chance of winning the election? [Medium Precision]
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When FiveThirtyEight first launches their election forecast model for the 2024 US Presidential Election, this market resolves to the percent chance the model says that Trump has to win the election.
If 538 has multiple models, this resolves based on whichever model they present as the "main" model. In 2020 there was only one version of the model, but in 2016 there was "poll-plus", "polls-only", and "now-cast". Polls-only was the "main model", in that case.
The model launched on Jun 29th in 2016, and August 12th in 2020. But perhaps it will be earlier this year, given that the primaries are already settled.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.