If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?
58%
chance

Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.

If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market resolves N/A. If he is elected president, this market resolves YES if average gas prices stay under $4 a gallon between January 2025 and November 2026 and NO if they do not.

Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

Related:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Based on this market, I created this conditional market which separates out close elections so that the market becomes useful in determining causation rather than just correlation.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules