If Kamala Harris does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Harris does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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1,000
3.00I think both Russia and Ukraine are waiting to see how the US election turns out, since Trump and Harris will have very different policies. The election is close enough that neither county in the war wants to come to the negotiating table right now when things could so drastically tilt in their favor in a few months.
Even if Ukraine views the election outcome as an existential risk and is willing to negotiate now, Russia is motivated to hold out until post election to see how sweet the pot can get.
If not for holding out until the election, I think both countries have enough war fatigue that they would be interested in negotiating peace today.
The US election could go either way, but there will be a treaty soon after thewp regardless of who wins.