If anyone but Biden is the Democratic Party nominee, will they win the election?
Aug 25
Biden is the Democratic Party nominee
Someone Else is the Democratic Party nominee and wins
Someone Else is the Democratic Party nominee and loses

According to a poll which ran in January:

Among registered voters, Biden and Trump were tied on 40% were the election to be held today. However, 'A Democrat other than Joe Biden' was ahead of Trump by 44% to 38%.

If Biden steps aside, will the Democratic Party pick someone who can win the election?

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Biden is the Democratic Party nominee

Why break this market?

@TommyEagle If you don't like this format, you can look at this market: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-would-win-the-presidential-elec

The reality is that conditional markets are currently set up to fail and you should take them all with a massive grain of salt

bought Ṁ300 Biden is the Democra... YES

Current implied odds are 60% that a non-Biden dem would win.

bought Ṁ200 Biden is the Democra... YES

70% now.

@Joshua Did you know that if I default on my loans, it almost doubles the chance of Canada having a recession this year? https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/if-tumbles-is-late-to-pay-back-a-lo

I really just don't think you can currently put stock into conditionals for unlikely scenarios. I know you are aware of this but I feel like this point should be made in this thread lest it become misleading.

New from Nate Silver today:

Since then, Biden’s situation has become considerably worse. If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite. But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he's probably the underdog. If you’re someone who would rather not see Trump re-elected again or who cares about the election for other reasons, it’s time to face the facts. You need to adjust to the new reality and not be mired in anchoring bias by your previous impression of the race.

But even the most optimistic Democrats, if you read between the lines, are really arguing that Democrats could win despite Biden and not because of him. Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point