Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index's official closing level on its last trading day of 2029 is higher than its official closing level on November 7, 2028 (Election Day). Resolves NO if it is equal or lower. Uses S&P Dow Jones Indices' published closes.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.