Will this Market have comments from 100 unique users before June?
1.0%
chance
If you're not sure what to comment about then share your favourite memory from when you were a child.
Or if that's too deep then just say your favourite food...
According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way that a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyway. Because bees don’t care what humans think is impossible.” SEQ. 75 - “INTRO TO BARRY” INT. BENSON HOUSE - DAY ANGLE ON: Sneakers on the ground. Camera PANS UP to reveal BARRY BENSON’S BEDROOM ANGLE ON: Barry’s hand flipping through different sweaters in his closet. BARRY Yellow black, yellow black, yellow black, yellow black, yellow black, yellow black...oohh, black and yellow... ANGLE ON: Barry wearing the sweater he picked, looking in the mirror. BARRY (CONT’D) Yeah, let’s shake it up a little. He picks the black and yellow one. He then goes to the sink, takes the top off a CONTAINER OF HONEY, and puts some honey into his hair. He squirts some in his mouth and gargles. Then he takes the lid off the bottle, and rolls some on like deodorant. CUT TO: INT. BENSON HOUSE KITCHEN - CONTINUOUS Barry’s mother, JANET BENSON, yells up at Barry. JANET BENSON Barry, breakfast is ready! CUT TO: "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 1. INT. BARRY’S ROOM - CONTINUOUS BARRY Coming! SFX: Phone RINGING. Barry’s antennae vibrate as they RING like a phone. Barry’s hands are wet. He looks around for a towel. BARRY (CONT’D) Hang on a second! He wipes his hands on his sweater, and pulls his antennae down to his ear and mouth. BARRY (CONT'D) Hello? His best friend, ADAM FLAYMAN, is on the other end. ADAM Barry? BARRY Adam? ADAM Can you believe this is happening? BARRY Can’t believe it. I’ll pick you up. Barry sticks his stinger in a sharpener. SFX: BUZZING AS HIS STINGER IS SHARPENED. He tests the sharpness with his finger. SFX: Bing. BARRY (CONT’D) Looking sharp. ANGLE ON: Barry hovering down the hall, sliding down the staircase bannister. Barry’s mother, JANET BENSON, is in the kitchen. JANET BENSON Barry, why don’t you use the stairs? Your father paid good money for those. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 2. BARRY Sorry, I’m excited. Barry’s father, MARTIN BENSON, ENTERS. He’s reading a NEWSPAPER with the HEADLINE, “Queen gives birth to thousandtuplets: Resting Comfortably.” MARTIN BENSON Here’s the graduate. We’re very proud of you, Son. And a perfect report card, all B’s. JANET BENSON (mushing Barry’s hair) Very proud. BARRY Ma! I’ve got a thing going here. Barry re-adjusts his hair, starts to leave. JANET BENSON You’ve got some lint on your fuzz. She picks it off. BARRY Ow, that’s me! MARTIN BENSON Wave to us. We’ll be in row 118,000. Barry zips off. BARRY Bye! JANET BENSON Barry, I told you, stop flying in the house! CUT TO: SEQ. 750 - DRIVING TO GRADUATION EXT. BEE SUBURB - MORNING A GARAGE DOOR OPENS. Barry drives out in his CAR. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 3. ANGLE ON: Barry’s friend, ADAM FLAYMAN, standing by the curb. He’s reading a NEWSPAPER with the HEADLINE: “Frisbee Hits Hive: Internet Down. Bee-stander: “I heard a sound, and next thing I knew...wham-o!.” Barry drives up, stops in front of Adam. Adam jumps in. BARRY Hey, Adam. ADAM Hey, Barry. (pointing at Barry’s hair) Is that fuzz gel? BARRY A little. It’s a special day. Finally graduating. ADAM I never thought I’d make it. BARRY Yeah, three days of grade school, three days of high school. ADAM Those were so awkward. BARRY Three days of college. I’m glad I took off one day in the middle and just hitchhiked around the hive. ADAM You did come back different. They drive by a bee who’s jogging. ARTIE Hi Barry! BARRY (to a bee pedestrian) Hey Artie, growing a mustache? Looks good. Barry and Adam drive from the suburbs into the city. ADAM Hey, did you hear about Frankie? "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 4. BARRY Yeah. ADAM You going to his funeral? BARRY No, I’m not going to his funeral. Everybody knows you sting someone you die, you don’t waste it on a squirrel. He was such a hot head. ADAM Yeah, I guess he could’ve just gotten out of the way. The DRIVE through a loop de loop. BARRY AND ADAM Whoa...Whooo...wheee!! ADAM I love this incorporating the amusement park right into our regular day. BARRY I guess that’s why they say we don’t need vacations. CUT TO: SEQ. 95 - GRADUATION EXT. GRADUATION CEREMONY - CONTINUOUS Barry and Adam come to a stop. They exit the car, and fly over the crowd to their seats. * BARRY * (re: graduation ceremony) * Boy, quite a bit of pomp...under * the circumstances. * They land in their seats. BARRY (CONT’D) Well Adam, today we are men. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 5. ADAM We are. BARRY Bee-men. ADAM Amen! BARRY Hallelujah. Barry hits Adam’s forehead. Adam goes into the rapture. An announcement comes over the PA. ANNOUNCER (V.O) Students, faculty, distinguished bees...please welcome, Dean Buzzwell. ANGLE ON: DEAN BUZZWELL steps up to the podium. The podium has a sign that reads: “Welcome Graduating Class of:”, with train-station style flipping numbers after it. BUZZWELL Welcome New Hive City graduating class of... The numbers on the podium change to 9:15. BUZZWELL (CONT’D) ...9:15. (he clears his throat) And that concludes our graduation ceremonies. And begins your career at Honex Industries. BARRY Are we going to pick our job today? ADAM I heard it’s just orientation. The rows of chairs change in transformer-like mechanical motion to Universal Studios type tour trams. Buzzwell walks off stage. BARRY (re: trams) Whoa, heads up! Here we go. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 6. SEQ. 125 - “FACTORY” FEMALE VOICE (V.O) Keep your hands and antennas inside the tram at all times. (in Spanish) Dejen las manos y antennas adentro del tram a todos tiempos. BARRY I wonder what it’s going to be like? ADAM A little scary. Barry shakes Adam. BARRY AND ADAM AAHHHH! The tram passes under SIGNS READING: “Honex: A Division of Honesco: A Part of the Hexagon Group.” TRUDY Welcome to Honex, a division of Honesco, and a part of the Hexagon group. BARRY This is it! The Honex doors OPEN, revealing the factory. BARRY (CONT’D) Wow. TRUDY We know that you, as a bee, have worked your whole life to get to the point where you can work for your whole life. Honey begins when our valiant pollen jocks bring the nectar to the hive where our top secret formula is automatically color-corrected, scent adjusted and bubble contoured into this... Trudy GRABS a TEST TUBE OF HONEY from a technician. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 7. TRUDY (CONT’D) ...soothing, sweet syrup with its distinctive golden glow, you all know as... EVERYONE ON THE TRAM (in unison) H-o-n-e-y. Trudy flips the flask into the crowd, and laughs as they all scramble for it. ANGLE ON: A GIRL BEE catching the honey. ADAM (sotto) That girl was hot. BARRY (sotto) She’s my cousin. ADAM She is? BARRY Yes, we’re all cousins. ADAM Right. You’re right. TRUDY At Honex, we also constantly strive to improve every aspect of bee existence. These bees are stress testing a new helmet technology. ANGLE ON: A STUNT BEE in a HELMET getting hit with a NEWSPAPER, then a SHOE, then a FLYSWATTER. He gets up, and gives a “thumb’s up”. The graduate bees APPLAUD. ADAM (re: stunt bee) What do you think he makes? BARRY Not enough. TRUDY And here we have our latest advancement, the Krelman. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 8. BARRY Wow, what does that do? TRUDY Catches that little strand of honey that hangs after you pour it. Saves us millions. ANGLE ON: The Krelman machine. Bees with hand-shaped hats on, rotating around a wheel to catch drips of honey. Adam’s hand shoots up. ADAM Can anyone work on the Krelman? TRUDY Of course. Most bee jobs are small ones. But bees know that every small job, if it’s done well, means a lot. There are over 3000 different bee occupations. But choose carefully, because you’ll stay in the job that you pick for the rest of your life. The bees CHEER. ANGLE ON: Barry’s smile dropping slightly. BARRY The same job for the rest of your life? I didn’t know that. ADAM What’s the difference? TRUDY And you’ll be happy to know that bees as a species haven’t had one day off in 27 million years. BARRY So you’ll just work us to death? TRUDY (laughing) We’ll sure try. Everyone LAUGHS except Barry. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 9. The tram drops down a log-flume type steep drop. Cameras flash, as all the bees throw up their hands. The frame freezes into a snapshot. Barry looks concerned. The tram continues through 2 doors. FORM DISSOLVE TO: SEQ. 175 - “WALKING THE HIVE” INT. HONEX LOBBY ANGLE ON: The log-flume photo, as Barry looks at it. ADAM Wow. That blew my mind. BARRY (annoyed) “What’s the difference?” Adam, how could you say that? One job forever? That’s an insane choice to have to make. ADAM Well, I’m relieved. Now we only have to make one decision in life. BARRY But Adam, how could they never have told us that? ADAM Barry, why would you question anything? We’re bees. We’re the most perfectly functioning society on Earth. They walk by a newspaper stand with A SANDWICH BOARD READING: “Bee Goes Berserk: Stings Seven Then Self.” ANGLE ON: A BEE filling his car’s gas tank from a honey pump. He fills his car some, then takes a swig for himself. NEWSPAPER BEE (to the bee guzzling gas) Hey! Barry and Adam begin to cross the street. "Bee Movie" - JS REVISIONS 8/13/07 10. BARRY Yeah but Adam, did you ever think that maybe things work a little too well around here? They stop in the middle of the street. The traffic moves perfectly around them. ADAM Like what? Give me one example. BARRY (thinks) ...I don’t know. But you know what I’m talking about. They walk off. SEQ. 400 - “MEET THE JOCKS” SFX: The SOUND of Pollen Jocks. PAN DOWN from the Honex statue. J-GATE ANNOUNCER Please clear the gate. Royal Nectar Force on approach. Royal Nectar Force on approach. BARRY Wait a second. Check it out. Hey, hey, those are Pollen jocks. ADAM Wow. FOUR PATROL BEES FLY in through the hive’s giant Gothic entrance. The Patrol Bees are wearing fighter pilot helmets with black visors. ADAM (CONT’D) I’ve never seen them this close. BARRY They
Manipulating the market without investing.
Luke W sold M$10 of YES10 days ago
Maybe I overestimated the active user base. This may surge as this market nears close but for now it's behind schedule so hedging a bit.
Just realized I had Hours 512-587 as the last bucket in my previous comment; was supposed to be 515-587.
Should then be:
Hours 0-72 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques
Hours 72-515 = 1x uniques/hr --> 47.07 uniques
Hours 515-587 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques
= ~78 uniques
17 uniques (incl. me) since 5/3 at ~5 AM --> ~0.2125 uniques/hr
~587 hours left until market close
Linear model predicts ~124 more uniques by the end of May for a total of 141
But the distribution will probably be bimodal (with modes near open and close of market).
Very roughly, assuming something like: (let 2x = 0.2125)
Hours 0-72 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques
Hours 72-512 = 1x uniques/hr --> 46.75 uniques
Hours 512-587 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.9375 uniques
= ~80 uniques.
I'm not sure how I'd turn this into a probability distribution of uniques; how would I get the standard error (without going through tons of existing markets and sampling their distributions)? Also not sure how this works with a bimodal distribution.
Rachel Shu bought M$30 of NO14 days ago
~500 monthly users (https://manifold.markets/analytics). Cmon guys, shouldn't be that hard.
lxnd is betting YES at 79% 14 days ago
Doing my part.
Seems very likely to be yes now that comments are free.
Luke W is betting YES at 83% 16 days ago
The month is young!
Juan Gil bought M$50 of YES16 days ago
Market for moving
Vishal Maini bought M$10 of YES16 days ago
peanut butter & jelly sandwich with milk. (fav memory as child, and also favorite food)
Rachel Shu bought M$10 of NO16 days ago
lfg
Sinclair Chen bought M$1 of YES17 days ago
hmmmmm
Uzay bought M$10 of YES17 days ago
hey y'all
Ian bought M$5 of YES17 days ago
Showing up for my team here
Yev bought M$10 of NO17 days ago
Dare accepted
@Luka Colic It's unique users so unless someone is willing to create a bunch of google accounts we should be okay.
James Grugett bought M$20 of YES17 days ago
Favorite memory as a child was creating a prediction market site
Luka Colic bought M$20 of YES17 days ago
Why wouldn't a bettor just spam comments? Seems like a easy yes.
Austin bought M$10 of YES17 days ago
These challenge markets were a lot more common in the DPM era ("Will the total pool of this market exceed M$ 10k?") haha. Kind of feels like a flash to the not-so-distant-past!
Undox bought M$1 of YES17 days ago
Very game theoretic this one! I will go yes as you seem to be able to comment for free.
SirSalty bought M$30 of NO17 days ago
Voting no and still commenting. I dare you to do the same.