Will this Market have comments from 100 unique users before June?
1.0%
chance
Jun 1
M\$791 bet
If you're not sure what to comment about then share your favourite memory from when you were a child. Or if that's too deep then just say your favourite food...
Manipulating the market without investing.

Luke W sold M\$10 of YES10 days ago

Maybe I overestimated the active user base. This may surge as this market nears close but for now it's behind schedule so hedging a bit.
Just realized I had Hours 512-587 as the last bucket in my previous comment; was supposed to be 515-587. Should then be: Hours 0-72 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques Hours 72-515 = 1x uniques/hr --> 47.07 uniques Hours 515-587 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques = ~78 uniques
17 uniques (incl. me) since 5/3 at ~5 AM --> ~0.2125 uniques/hr ~587 hours left until market close Linear model predicts ~124 more uniques by the end of May for a total of 141 But the distribution will probably be bimodal (with modes near open and close of market). Very roughly, assuming something like: (let 2x = 0.2125) Hours 0-72 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques Hours 72-512 = 1x uniques/hr --> 46.75 uniques Hours 512-587 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.9375 uniques = ~80 uniques. I'm not sure how I'd turn this into a probability distribution of uniques; how would I get the standard error (without going through tons of existing markets and sampling their distributions)? Also not sure how this works with a bimodal distribution.

Rachel Shu bought M\$30 of NO14 days ago

~500 monthly users (https://manifold.markets/analytics). Cmon guys, shouldn't be that hard.

lxnd is betting YES at 79% 14 days ago

Doing my part.
Seems very likely to be yes now that comments are free.

Luke W is betting YES at 83% 16 days ago

The month is young!

Juan Gil bought M\$50 of YES16 days ago

Market for moving

Vishal Maini bought M\$10 of YES16 days ago

peanut butter & jelly sandwich with milk. (fav memory as child, and also favorite food)

Rachel Shu bought M\$10 of NO16 days ago

lfg

Sinclair Chen bought M\$1 of YES17 days ago

hmmmmm

Uzay bought M\$10 of YES17 days ago

hey y'all

Ian bought M\$5 of YES17 days ago

Showing up for my team here

Yev bought M\$10 of NO17 days ago

Dare accepted
@Luka Colic It's unique users so unless someone is willing to create a bunch of google accounts we should be okay.

James Grugett bought M\$20 of YES17 days ago

Favorite memory as a child was creating a prediction market site

Luka Colic bought M\$20 of YES17 days ago

Why wouldn't a bettor just spam comments? Seems like a easy yes.

Austin bought M\$10 of YES17 days ago

These challenge markets were a lot more common in the DPM era ("Will the total pool of this market exceed M\$ 10k?") haha. Kind of feels like a flash to the not-so-distant-past!

Undox bought M\$1 of YES17 days ago

Very game theoretic this one! I will go yes as you seem to be able to comment for free.

SirSalty bought M\$30 of NO17 days ago

Voting no and still commenting. I dare you to do the same.