Will any market get >10k unique traders?

closes 2024

15%

chance

ALL

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

Manifold's 2023 Predictions

Luca Masters bought Ṁ25 YES from 12% to 15%

Winston Oswald-Drummond bought Ṁ85 NO from 14% to 12%

MayMeta bought Ṁ2 NO at 14%

Thomas Smyth bought Ṁ10 YES from 13% to 14%

MayMeta bought Ṁ5 NO at 13%

Dan sold Ṁ111 NO from 11% to 13%

Pip Foweraker bought Ṁ75 NO from 12% to 11%

Genzy bought Ṁ300 NO from 19% to 12%

MayMeta bought Ṁ2 NO at 19%

RBGreen bought Ṁ1 NO at 19%

RBGreen sold Ṁ1 YES at 19%

RBGreen bought Ṁ1 YES at 19%

Dan bought Ṁ100 NO from 23% to 19%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ65 NO from 20% to 23%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 20%

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ65 NO from 23% to 20%

Mira bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

DismalScientist sold Ṁ43 NO from 22% to 24%

Nico D sold Ṁ13 NO from 21% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 21% (cancelled)

Gigacasting bought Ṁ75 NO from 26% to 22%

firstuserhere sold Ṁ1 NO at 26%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ109 NO from 20% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled)

Katja Grace bought Ṁ100 NO from 27% to 21%

Sinclair Chen created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 27% (cancelled)

Sinclair Chen bought Ṁ40 NO from 32% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 32% (cancelled)

Matt C. Wilson bought Ṁ50 NO from 37% to 31%

DismalScientist bought Ṁ40 NO from 43% to 37%

S G bought Ṁ45 YES from 31% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled)

Charlie bought Ṁ30 NO from 35% to 30%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ1 NO at 35%

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ30 NO from 45% to 35%

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ50 NO at 45%

Carson Gale filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 YES at 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled)

yaboi69 bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 44%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 37%

Emma Cadence bought Ṁ15 NO from 58% to 43%

Tripping sold Ṁ11 YES from 66% to 58%

Nathan Nguyen bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 66%

Tripping bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

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By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique traders?89%

Will I create a market with 100 unique traders in 2023?57%

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Will any of my markets get more traders than The Market in 2023?25%

Brian T. Edwards

Will any of my markets have 1000 traders by the end of 2023?47%

Joseph Noonan

Will any market on Manifold get more than 3000 unique traders in 2023?26%

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Will I make a market with at least 100 traders this year?63%

Isaac

Will any long-term market have at least 1000 traders by the end of 2023?68%

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Will my relationship market have at least 100 unique traders by the end of 2023?40%

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Will any of my markets about prediction market longevity have at least 100 traders by the end of 2023?26%

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Will this market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?32%

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Will any long-term market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?93%

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Will this market reach 200 traders by the end of 2023?42%

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Will any market about the Manifold MTG tournament get at least 50 traders?61%

Derik K

Will the trading bonus be increased for the first few unique traders?43%

seaton

Will this market have 200 or more unique predictors?16%

Isaac

By the end of 2023, will anyone have an untrustworthy badge for at least a month, and create at least 2 markets during that time that get at least 50 traders each?12%