If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?
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resolved Mar 8
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YES
Background: Mantic Markets is exploring different monetization options for its current play-money offering. One idea that has been proposed is to simply sell the platform's virtual currency, Mantic Dollars, for real money. For instance, a user could top up their balance by buying M$ 500 for $5 USD. This would not only help make Mantic Markets a financially sustainable business but would also solve the biggest problem with play-money markets: ensuring an adequate amount of monetary scarcity such that people take their betting seriously. Resolves YES if Mantic Markets introduces the option for users to purchase Mantic Dollars with real money (either in the form of a direct purchase or through a monthly subscription) and keeps it running for at least 60 days. Resolves NO if Mantic Markets introduces a M$ purchase option and removes it from the platform within 60 days. Resolves N/A if Mantic Markets does not introduce a M$ purchase option by April 1, 2022. Tags: #ManticMarkets Update: Mantic Markets is now Manifold Markets. An M$ purchase option has also been introduced. #ManifoldMarkets
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Is the 60 day mark March 7th?
Bought some! It was a cool way to support you and I used it to make some markets. I bought some even though there are some obvious ways to game the system. I don't love with Austin's ideas for rewarding usage (respectfully, etc). I've seen it done and it feels cheap. Learn the hard way (by offering a cool product), otherwise you'll attract and retain users that literally only show up for the daily handout like this is some sort of idle clicker game. Also, I already have Polymarket and it's just fine. Something about this is super fun and fresh. Doesn't have to be a cryptocurrency. It's nice as a game where the points don't (really) matter and the rules are made up.
I think we should be able to exchange them for cryptos, it'd definitely keep the website afloat imo.
Yes, that is how it currently works!
For clarification, would the mechanism be that you can buy Manifold Dollars (so that you can participate more) but not be able to then cash them out somehow?
We have many ways to keep Manifold Dollars valuable, even if we stop selling it, e.g. crypto airdrop, tournaments with real prizes.
I occurs to me that if you try this and it doesn't work, the tokens are not worth anything, so this isn't exactly a pristine and uncorrupted market.
Nuño, I like the idea and we can try it. But my hope is as our platform evolves, OpenPhilanthropy or any organization would be able to get accurate results even easier by simply creating all the prediction markets they find interesting. The same is true for any individual. If our system is sound, and if it's fun enough to attract many traders, we can get orders of magnitude more forecasting that create a lot of value for the world.
An alternative monetization scheme: - Ask organizations which want questions created to pay for the privilege (e.g., OpenPhilanthropy), and then give said organizations the opportunity to create tournaments in which the winners get real money. E..g, the mantic won in the tournament can be exchanged $$.
Yusef, don't worry, we'll get to the crypto tokens at some point! I don't oppose other ways to gain M$, but I do think having the option directly buy M$ is a value add. - When you're out of M$, sometimes you'll want to quickly get more to make the trade you were thinking about. - When some people buy M$, they will make big bets in markets. This creates opportunities for traders to get good odds on the other side and win! So, even if you never buy M$, those who do will increase the liquidity of every market they bet in, making the site the more fun overall for everyone. - We want M$ to be scarce, so gaining it has to not be game-able. No script farms that generate infinite M$ and then corrupt the markets with poor bets. The clearest way to do this is to put a real price on new M$. - Charging for M$ makes bets feel more weighty. You are careful, and the predictions are more accurate, because you paid real money for it. - Secretly, we are building full-fledged prediction markets. This change blurs the line between play-money and real money. I think we can build an ecosystem where it is fast, easy, and legal to bet on everything. The value of the information we gain will be enormous. And funding this project by selling M$ is a small price to pay.
Among the founders, I'm the least excited about selling M$ for $. I worry about the reputational risk of having a "cash grab", and I think user growth is much more important atm. I do agree that we need some way to inject more money into the ecosystem but in a way that is scarce and tied to something valuable. Some ideas: - Daily login bonuses (to encourage retention) - Daily market participation rewards - Referral bonuses (to encourage new user acquisition)
Hard to get excited about play money that costs money compared to crypto tokens.

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