Will this Market have comments from 100 unique users before June?
31
146
122
resolved Jun 4
Resolved
NO
If you're not sure what to comment about then share your favourite memory from when you were a child. Or if that's too deep then just say your favourite food...
Get Ṁ600 play money

## Related questions

#NameTotal profit
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:(
sushi
👋🏻
Tripe
yo
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Feels ripe for a last-day push.
bought Ṁ4 of YES
This seems like a good price for a YES.
yo
sold Ṁ26 of YES
Failed to do things required to turn it around
bought Ṁ30 of YES
Time to turn this around
predicted NO
This is so sad, Alexa play Despacito
Hello there!
Manipulating the market without investing.
sold Ṁ10 of YES
Maybe I overestimated the active user base. This may surge as this market nears close but for now it's behind schedule so hedging a bit.
Just realized I had Hours 512-587 as the last bucket in my previous comment; was supposed to be 515-587. Should then be: Hours 0-72 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques Hours 72-515 = 1x uniques/hr --> 47.07 uniques Hours 515-587 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques = ~78 uniques
17 uniques (incl. me) since 5/3 at ~5 AM --> ~0.2125 uniques/hr ~587 hours left until market close Linear model predicts ~124 more uniques by the end of May for a total of 141 But the distribution will probably be bimodal (with modes near open and close of market). Very roughly, assuming something like: (let 2x = 0.2125) Hours 0-72 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.3 uniques Hours 72-512 = 1x uniques/hr --> 46.75 uniques Hours 512-587 = 2x uniques/hr --> 15.9375 uniques = ~80 uniques. I'm not sure how I'd turn this into a probability distribution of uniques; how would I get the standard error (without going through tons of existing markets and sampling their distributions)? Also not sure how this works with a bimodal distribution.
bought Ṁ30 of NO
~500 monthly users (https://manifold.markets/analytics). Cmon guys, shouldn't be that hard.
predicted YES
Doing my part.
Seems very likely to be yes now that comments are free.
predicted YES
The month is young!
bought Ṁ50 of YES
Market for moving
bought Ṁ10 of YES
peanut butter & jelly sandwich with milk. (fav memory as child, and also favorite food)
bought Ṁ10 of NO
lfg