rad

Now that this will resolve YES, here is my multi-market on the rest of the people

@BoltonBailey you wanna resolve it for us? Not sure the staff is online.

@Austin can you resolve this one? We've got Sandberg and Matthews now.

Markets he made:

https://manifold.markets/AndersSandberg?tab=questions

And for Matthews:

https://manifold.markets/DylanMatthews?tab=questions

Verified!

Anders Sandberg plus:

/CarsonGale/will-dylan-matthews-create-a-market

means this resolves YES

@Manifold resolves YES?

looks like him

@jacksonpolack quite convinced this is real, most probably triggered by Foresight Vision Weekend where Anders will attend – timing very much checks out and so do the types of questions asked.

Does manifold.love count?

I don't want to be the guy, but could you take the thing from Metaculus where you describe who you are talking about?

I'm assuming the movement was because Robin Hanson made a few bets?

Belief in @RobinHanson is generally at an all-time high.

Fwiw when I first made this, only Caplan had acknowledged Manifold's existence (to my knowledge). Now, Dylan Matthews and Robin Hanson have attended Manifest, Noah Smith almost came, and Vitalik has linked to Manifest in a blog post!

Senpais are noticing us uwu

@Austin “under the hood, it’s all just people”

This should make it somewhat more likely.

@JustifieduseofFallibilism why did I not buy more yes?

Let's get real these are people, not folks.

After asking if anyone would pay for my trip to ask Caplan, the very generous @firstuserhere has sent me 3000M. So I have booked the train ticket to (and back from) Frankfurt. Where I will hopefully be able to convince Caplan to become an active manifold user.

@Timothy that's awesome, enjoy the trip!

.

I bet on Vitalik

Betting yes, and if it looks like none of these people are going to create a market I am going to email them asking to create a market.

@TimothyCurrie I have a way to get people to think of market questions.

Imagine you have a crystal ball that will give probabilities in response to yes/no questions. The crystal ball functions by peering into the minds of people across all possible futures, so it is best to ask questions that will have a publicly known answer by a date specified in the question. You can ask as many questions as you want. What questions would you ask?

Manifold supports more kinds of markets than that, but I think it's a good start for someone new.

@LukeHanks Source? Did you get that from somewhere, or think of it yourself? That’s really good!

@SaulMunn I thought of it myself. Thanks!