bro @Gen what the hell?

@ryanmccomb leverage x100

@Gen when ge gonna get an order book?

@ryanmccomb soon™ (it will probably be a while)

@Gen

Manifold Soon /ˈmæn.ə.foʊld sun/ (n.)

Etymology: Manifold Markets (a prediction market where "soon" resolutions chronically miss) + Soon™ (a promise made with visibly low confidence).

1. A release timeline hedged enough ("probably," "a while") that it reads less like a date and more like a probability distribution with no right tail.

2. Soon™: a promise. Manifold Soon: a promise you'd bet NO on.

Usage: "Babe I can't come over, the feature's dropping on Manifold "soon" and I have to see it.

@ryanmccomb How does an order book work, given that it does not influence market trends?

@Emanuele1000 my guess is that all the bot are going to be able to integrate it as an indicator. The only reason i can see is for the bot’s owner to maybe have an other indicator on said real market.

Why stop at 100x?

we need infinite leverage

What is the difference between betting 1000 with 100x leverage and betting 100,000 with 1x leverage?

The most obvious difference is that a 1% loss is enough to liquidate the position, but in both cases I would lose 1000, and I could still buy back in with the same leverage.

Is there a difference in how funding works and how it varies?

@Emanuele1000 the leverage risks complete closure rather than storm weathering. but you also participate less in funding (could be gains/losses!). if you got 100k to invest that's wild, but the point of leverage is to get that upside if you're confident you won't liquidate without having to lock up that much mana

(edit: and to have a max loss amount! the 100k loses much more than 1k @ 100x if things go worse)

@Emanuele1000 i have 1000 mana but i dont have 100,000 mana

@Emanuele1000 Good question, as we differ from most real-money exchanges here. Funding is charged on your margin, not your notional. So, the 100,000 position at 1x pays (or receives) 100x the funding of the 1,000 @ 100x position, even though they have the same exposure. It also shifts the funding rate itself: pools are margin-weighted, so the 100k bet pushes the long/short imbalance 100x harder against your own side.

Funding never changes your liquidation price, it scales your whole position down (or up) proportionally at each funding event (hourly on bitcoin).

On liquidation: correct that ~1% wipes the 100x position, but note there are no partial liquidations. Your full remaining margin is forfeited, and each re-entry pays the fee on notional (M100 per cycle on a M1,000 stake at 100x). A 1x long position can never be liquidated, and its loss stays unrealised -- it's like owning imaginary bitcoin with mana; unless you get scaled down by ADL.

@Gen can you lose your investment even at 1x bc of ADL?

@Stralor no, ADL can never take your margin at any leverage. It only ever scales down profitable positions relative to their entry price. So if you're down, the whole way back to your entry point you're untouchable - ADL skips you if your profit is <0.

ADL can take unrealized profit. It shrinks the position size while leaving the margin the same, and in the absolute worst case it will force settle you at exactly your remaining margin, so at 1x your downside from ADL is capped at having your profits socialised to prevent a market failure.

@Gen yep super duper cpmm vibes

@Gen FYI funding is now charged on the notional, not the margin (I saw someone just liked this comment). I am experimenting, but this is a departure from the paper so worth correcting here. I won't announce until we know which direction we're sticking with, and I guess update the paper

@Gen sorry if this is obvious, but the funding rate (currently -0.005%) is as a percentage of what? the absolute mana per hour quoted does change with margin (and not when I change leverage), but seems more like at ~2x that rate?

I have a question about how funding works. The percentage depends on the notional amount, but it’s applied only to the margin. Doesn’t that create a distortion? Those who invest with the trend are betting with leverage, while those who invest against the trend are betting without leverage. Or can I invest with leverage and increase payouts, even without having to use much Mana? And where does the difference end up, considering that the percentage is the same for both sides but is applied to different values?

As people start playing around with 100x, I recommend toggling the 'liquidations' pill above the chart. You will be able to watch the suckers (like me) get wiped out!

@Gen YOLO

oh man remember that one crazy time that bitcoin dipped to 10 cents a piece for like 3 minutes back on august 7th, 2026, at like midnight? really something to see (#manifesting)

@geuber I mean a lot of banks and hedge funds would collapse, are you sure you want that? Ahaha

@JasonMendoza2008 it’s better if bitcoin just slowlyyyyy goes to 3 cents

@JasonMendoza2008 do i look like a hedge fund to you

@geuber where do you think your pension money goes

@JasonMendoza2008 do i appear employed

@geuber where do you think your parents’ pension money goes

@JasonMendoza2008 it does feel worth noting at this point that i was merely committed to the bit and do in fact have a job

@geuber ahahaha, I was expecting a « I don’t have parents »

@JasonMendoza2008 unfortunately i must always think 1 step ahead, and i don't know enough about batman to make a witty batman joke, this path lead to the least embarrassment