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MANIFOLD
Pavel Durov released in August?
42
Ṁ100Ṁ5.7k
resolved Aug 28
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pavel Durov is released from custody by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Durov is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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Waiting on more official information stating he has posted bail and is free from custody, then this can resolve yes.

Okay, here we go: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-charges-telegram-ceo-pavel-durov-released-bail/

Resolving yes now.

@jbca Are we arbitraging the same markets but in opposite directions? :)

I think he’s going away, but this seemed underpriced so I was buying some YES to hedge.

bought Ṁ400 YES

https://apnews.com/article/france-telegram-pavel-durov-arrest-6e213d227458f330ed16e7fe221a696c

Freed from custody according to AP

"and will have him brought to court for a first appearance and a possible indictment", from the same article.

That's not a release; that type of hearing is a precondition for holding anyone longer than 96 hours.

bought Ṁ200 NO

French justice is usually slow.

sold Ṁ91 NO

He could be placed on house arrest, or let free under a very large bond, though. Either of those would make this resolve yes.

Looks like my comment about being let free on a large bond aged well

Good job haha!