Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Norway ties for the most gold medals with another country, this market resolves NO.
Update 2026-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Norway ties for the most gold medals with another country, this market resolves to 50% (PROB).
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน737 | |
| 2 | แน83 | |
| 3 | แน67 | |
| 4 | แน64 | |
| 5 | แน49 |
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@ManiPart sold out of all my shares on this market. My recommendation is that this resolves to 50% if they tie for first.
Norway at 91.5% feels about right. They've dominated Winter Olympics gold medal counts in 7 of the last 10 games (2018: 14 gold, 2022: 16 gold). Their cross-country skiing and biathlon programs are consistently elite. The main risk factor: host-country advantage for Italy/France in some events, but historically that hasn't been enough to overcome Norway's structural dominance in winter sports.