Will an algorithm be able to work on million-line codebases before 2026?
Will an algorithm be able to work on million-line codebases before 2026?
10
110Ṁ2122026
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there exists an algorithm capable of reasoning over, answering questions about and working on codebases (not seen during training) with at least one million lines of code, to the same level as humans who are experts on these codebases, before Jan 1st 2026
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will an AI system be able to fully refactor a 10k+ line codebase before 2026 ?
47% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
61% chance
Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2025?
29% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
78% chance
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
65% chance
Will AI/chatgpt technology be good enough to autoconvert matlab code to runnable python code by EOY 2025?
85% chance
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
68% chance
Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?
78% chance
Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031?
39% chance
Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?
86% chance