Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising. While she announced her desire to end her exile and return to Bangladesh by late 2026, doing so carries massive stakes.

A special tribunal in Dhaka sentenced Hasina to death in absentia over human rights violations and genocide tied to the violent 2024 protest crackdown. Bangladesh's current interim government has banned her party, and authorities confirmed she will face immediate arrest if she sets foot in the country. Hasina frames her return as a duty to her supporters, while critics maintain she faces prison or execution upon arrival.

This market resolves YES if Hasina physically enters Bangladesh by December 31, 2026, and NO if legal risks and political instability keep her in exile.