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MANIFOLD
Will Justin Verlander hit his 2024 IP contract trigger?
7
Ṁ1kṀ6.9k
resolved Aug 6
Resolved
NO

Justin Verlander's contract has a $35M player option that vests with 140IP in 2024. Will he hit that mark?

Question will resolve YES when he hits that mark or NO when the regular season ends.

If he/team announces he is no longer pitching this season and it is clear he will not hit the mark, I may resolve early.

Any other contact terms are irrelevant- only IP counts.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/6341/justin-verlander

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If he doesn't come back by when the Astros have 50 games left, I'm going to resolve No. If anyone objects, please do so now.

Logic:

He has 57 IP, so needs an additional 83 to hit 140. With 50 games left, he could realistically start 10. He'd need 8+ innings per start, which is ridiculous. Plus they've talked about a 6 man rotation, so even the 10 starts are unlikely.

Been a week since that comment and no objections. Last I saw he the from the mound against batters who didn't swing. 🤨

6 games to go before he needs to be back on the roster, which seems very unlikely. Resolution coming soon!

He needs to pitch an average of six and a third innings every five games for the rest of the season, and is currently still in the news for throwing bullpens. Seems very unlikely.

Yeah, he's probably going to need a rehab start too.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Skipped start (for now): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/astros-notes-verlander-rotation-tucker.html

Went on the IL and looks like he's eligible to come back 7/1. At this point if he comes back on time and stays healthy the rest of the year, he should make it, but there's not margin for an extended absence

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