Resolves YES if, on any day by the end of the current Atlantic hurricane season (12/1/2025), there are strictly more than two named storms active in the Atlantic basin. The storms don't have to have the same lifespan; they simply have to overlap in time.
Resolves according to classification by the National Hurricane Center.
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Post-tropical cyclones do not count as an active storm for this market.
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Relying on Google/06Z, some rough calculations suggests 93L and 94L have a good chance for overlapping as a TS by the end of the month....
Edit:
They have identical MLTG per latest FSU cycle ...
@MachiNi I totally misread the question. My bad. =\
Well it looks like based on Google/12Z, 94L will take a bit longer than 93L to develop into a named storm, and given Gabriel is going to be Extratropical before then (by the 27th per NHC), nothing else seems likely at the moment to develop besides these two in the next week or so anyway.
I think I will then rely on a simple prior calculation using historical frequency for October+ from my climate notebook (~around 10% or less), and then multiply it 2-3 times .-- even if this year ends up back-loaded I wouldn't expect the probabilities to be several multiples in the more limited areas of likely development for later in the season...
Edit: I should say I did consider a different triple also of some low probability (an AEW in a week) that had some small % developing into a TS (~30%) but it's chances of developing into a named storm before 93L or 94L dissipates/become extratropical after recurving north end up also < 10%, so it seems appropriate to use the prior above.
@parhizj Yes perhaps we could have a set of questions for how many times there are more than 1 named storm in Atlantic at the same time for the season.
Would need notes:
A pair only counts one unless a storm regains TS strength while the other is still active
3 at same time will count as 3 i.e. one for each pair, 4 at same time would counts as 6 i.e. one for each pair.
@ChristopherRandles That sounds confusing. Easiest to count a multi like this:
at most 1 storm at a time (simultaneous best track valid times as TS/SS/HU), at least 2 storms at the same time, at least 3 storms ... up to 4. There hasn't ever been 5 storms in the AL according to my notebook.
~
North Atlantic basin - Probability of N simultaneous Named Storms (6-1 to 11-30), Reference Period: 1991 - 2024
0 simultaneous storms: 0.0%
1 simultaneous storms: 8.8%
2 simultaneous storms: 20.6%
3 simultaneous storms: 52.9%
4 simultaneous storms: 17.6%
~
If anyone is actually interested in these types of questions out of curiosity I suggest browsing these couple papers that model global cyclonegenesis, and try to place bounds on how many can be generated within a period globally, etc:
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/8383/2019/
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020MS002207
@traders I’m anticipating disputes over what ‘active storm’ means. To be clear, a post tropical cyclone doesn’t count as an active storm.
Happy to refund you if you’ve been misled (and lose mana if you sell).