Will @Mira post a concession speech by end of week?
Will @Mira post a concession speech by end of week?
6
130Ṁ391
resolved Dec 11
Resolved as
70%

Update (12/10)

The end of day market resolved to 66%. This will resolve to at least 66% or YES if Mira posts an actual concession speech by market close


This concerns TIME's Person of the Year of course.

End of day = December 10, 11:59 PM US EST

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1y

The only addition is https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_/status/1732633437641781648?s=20

Rounding up to 70%. If I've missed anything, let me know.

1y

@case @LasseRasinen This won’t resolve under 66% (see comments). I can managram you if you sell at a loss.

predictedNO 1y

@NicoDelon nah, that'll teach me to read the description :)

1y

@LasseRasinen Well, I’m offering because I forgot to update the description of this market until this morning and feel bad about it. It was only in the comments. Though it was in the other market’s description.

1y

The end of day market resolved to 66%. This will resolve to at least 66% or YES if Mira posts an actual concession speech by market close.

predictedYES 1y

@NicoDelon Let's say I think it will resolve to 66%. That means if it's above 66% I bet no, and if it's below 66% I bet yes. Right? Asking so I understand the format

bought Ṁ10 YES from 68% to 72% 1y

@Tumbles To be perfectly frank with you, I’ve always had a hard time understanding exactly how to calculate expected gains and losses with percentage resolutions. But I think, yes, if you bet it down to 66% and that’s what it resolves to, you make profits .

1y
predictedYES 1y

@NicoDelon Does this not count?

@Tumbles See the other market. It’s a concession but not a speech. When prompted Mira wouldn’t concede more. In fact, she posted her victory speech.

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