Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.

• Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.

• United States: Includes the 50 US states, Washington D.C., and inhabited US territories (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands).

• Source of Truth: Official advisories, Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCRs), or final Best Track data published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). If a storm's classification or intensity at landfall is revised in the official post-storm Tropical Cyclone Report, the final TCR data will be used for resolution.