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MANIFOLD
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas before the end of August?
21
Ṁ410Ṁ7.7k
resolved Aug 31
Resolved
NO

The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.

Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Source: National Hurricane Center

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Alright, because there’s no activity in the gulf and it would be physically impossible for a hurricane to materialize and make landfall within the next few hours I’ll go ahead and resolve NO. I don’t want to keep people’s mana locked longer than is appropriate.

I know it’s much less than 1% likely for a new hurricane to form and hit any of those states before Friday, but I promise I’ll resolve promptly then. Idalia could turn back or something. The world is weird.

Seems too high, but I'm not going to bet more to bring it down right now.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_forecast?area=Global&base_time=202308070000&intensity=Tropical%20storms&parameter=Forecast&valid_time=202308210000

Puts it at <5% for hurricane, <10% for tropical storm. Increasing bet to 95%

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