This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump claims credit for or positively associates his administration with a relatively quiet 2025 Atlantic hurricane season before the end of the year.

Context: The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA predicted an above-normal 2025 season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. It looks so far as if the season may actually be near normal. As of the creation of this market, no hurricane has made landfall in the US in 2025.

Will Trump claim that his administration's policies, leadership, or other actions contributed to a less active hurricane season than predicted?

9/30/25 update:

Because resolution is subjective I will not trade in this market. However, here are some examples that would clearly count (including but not limited to):

• a Truth social post praising himself or his administration for the outcomes of this hurricane season

• a press conference remark or statement praising himself or his administration…

• a post, remark or statement attributing the outcomes to his overhaul of FEMA or the NWS

• any public suggestion that the previous administration engineered hurricanes and was responsible for past damage in a way that contrasts with his own administration (presumably not engineering hurricanes)