Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a previously unknown composition by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart is publicly announced and authenticated by a credible musicological institution (such as the International Mozarteum Foundation, a major university music department, or equivalent scholarly body) before January 1, 2030. The work must be a complete or substantially complete composition, not merely a fragment or sketch. Authentication must be based on musicological analysis and/or documentary evidence establishing Mozart's authorship with reasonable scholarly consensus. The market resolves NO if no such discovery is announced and authenticated by the deadline.

Background

The Köchel Catalog, which comprehensively catalogs Mozart's compositions, contained 95 new pieces discovered since its last update in 1964, with the most recent discovery announced in September 2024—a string trio manuscript found during compilation of a new Köchel edition. Mozart's father recorded a list of chamber works his son composed in his early years, many of which were thought to have been lost to history. According to the head of research at the International Mozarteum Foundation, there have been only about 10 Mozart discoveries of similar importance.

Considerations

Authentication difficulties arise from early Mozart symphonies where original autograph scores are missing, with some works known only through opening bars cataloged by historical publishers. Mozart copied parts of other composers' music for study purposes, and later discoveries of scores in his hand sometimes led to misattribution, causing confusion between works by Wolfgang and his father Leopold, as well as other composers in the Mozart circle.

This description was generated by AI.