Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024?
48
244
1k
2025
6%
chance

Will resolve "Yes" if the following conditions apply:

  • There is a large scale assault on Crimea by Ukraine at any time during 2024

  • Attempts to seriously undermine the Russian defense of Crimea by the Ukrainian military are undertaken, in preparation for a large scale assault, at any time during 2024.

Will be restricted only to when an attempt to retake Crimea might happen, regardless of the outcome.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 of NO

"Attempts to seriously undermine the Russian defense of Crimea by the Ukrainian military are undertaken, in preparation for a large scale assault, at any time during 2024."

What do you mean by this? Could you provide concrete examples? Because Ukraine has been hitting Crimea with various kinds of missiles and drones for some time, now. I take it this doesn't qualify, but what would?

predicts YES

@AlexandreK I’m thinking more along the lines of encirclement, or laying a siege of Crimea. Permanently destroying or crippling Russian supply lines into Crimea would also count.

@Meta_C do we need both conditions? Like a mere siege should not be enough?

predicts YES

@42irrationalist You don’t need both, just one of these conditions is enough.

@Meta_C This feels way to vague for me to bet. Lots of things can happen that wouldn't really fall under the common sense definition of "attempt to retake" that would cause the market to resolve YES.

I think it's possible that the Russian government loses control of the land bridge to Crimea and then Crimea is sort of sieged but it's far from "an attempt to retake"

Just to be clear: this resolves YES if both of the conditions apply? Or is just one sufficient?

predicts YES

@MartinModrak Just one is sufficient for this poll.

Whether both happens depends largely on when in the year they start doing so, and other factors such as logistics, etc. But as long as the clear signal of intent is there, it then counts as a “Yes”.

More related questions