It still hasn't got down to 50%!

I'm happy with my early bet and my profit - it's a shame there wasn't a bit more early volume on this market so that I could have bet bigger without getting the odds down so far!

Now we go again! Though I suspect this one's going to be a lot closer...

4483 subreddits are back out of 8829. This market resolves to NO.

2 minutes!

So if I've got the maths right here...

8829 subreddits are being tracked and 5160 are currently dark (as per the definition of https://reddark.untone.uk/)

So we would need to get down to 2207 to hit 25% and resolve YES.

That's another 2953 subreddits going from private/restricted to public over the next 32 hours (from now until midnight GMT-3) or 92 subs per hour. Today we've only seen this figure falling by 20 to 40 per hour.

(All figures are net - so if 50 subs turn on the lights and another 20 turn them back off then that only counts as 30)

So it looks like we're not going to hit 25% through the current organic switching on, meaning that one of a few things has to happen for this to resolve to YES:

• Moderators across a large range of subreddits have to decide that enough is enough and that they've either made their point or that what they're doing is futile. This is looking less likely with the hours running out

• Reddit could make some major concessions which mean that the protests are ended. This seems unlikely but not impossible.

• Reddit could decide that they've had enough and start banning or booting moderators who keep their subs dark and installing new mods who will turn the lights back on. They could do this en masse or they could start with some of the biggest subs and make the mods of the smaller subs back down. This seems possible, but they'd have to move quickly to make this happen within 32 hours.

All told, I'm pretty comfortable that 20% is fair value on this market right now!

With 17 hours to go...

4906 subreddits are still dark, so we would need to see over 150 subs an hour switching the lights back on and we've been seeing 15 to 20 per hour doing so. At this rate, we won't even hit 50% by the deadline, let alone 25%.

On the other hand, Reddit look like they're serious about booting moderators who try to keep their sub dark. They'll struggle to make much headway on that in a single day though:

https://www.macrumors.com/2023/06/15/reddit-threatens-to-remove-subreddit-moderators/

36, not 12 hours to go. Close date is 17, not 16. At the rate of -.26 pp / hour, will reach 44.991052632% at close. -.192 pp / hour, 47.45314612%.

@XComhghall Yeah, we aren't even close.

Hopefully and probably not.

@XComhghall

36, not 12 hours to go. Close date is 17, not 16.

But today is Friday the 16th. If we take "end of Friday" as something like 11:59 PM on Friday then we have about 11 1/2 hours to go (it is 12:37 PM in UTC-3).

@CollectedOverSpread Well, it's not Friday the 16th everywhere, but that is besides the point. You make a good point, I think it should close in ~12 hours.

@CollectedOverSpread You are right. The resolution criterion said 6/16 11:59 p.m. ADT (UTC-3).

Link for convenience

ADT (UTC-3)

6/16 18:00 52.24%

6/16 22:25 50.96% -0.28981132 pp / hour

6/16 23:15 50.87% -0.108 pp / hour

@MP How are you defining "the end of Friday"?

@SimonGrayson GMT-3