Guyana is on track to quickly become the richest nation in South America.

If by 2035 at least two mainstream financial media outlets (WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, The Economist...) run stories on how Guyana significantly failed to live to its promise and is now facing collapse (on the level that countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, Russia, faced). Even a big corruption scandal like Operation Car Wash, that would curb significantly (60%+) Guyana oil production (given that unlike Brazil, Guyana is just oil), would be enogh to resolve this market to YES, if it also called for a collapse, oil curse, or something similar by 2 mainstream financial media outlets.

I won't bet on this market. This market resolves on Dec 2035, or earlier if collapse abates Guyana.